MLB Baseball Analytics - Baseball Analytics Blog

Here is a very quick and simplistic key to success in the two League Championship Series: Get ahead on the count.

Take a look at the 2013 Postseason numbers for the final four

Here's the overall batting numbers to date

Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	156	.333	.390	.572	.962	22.4%	7.7%	5.1%	.218
2. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	160	.286	.390	.414	.803	20.6%	12.5%	1.5%	.191
3. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	178	.235	.299	.321	.620	21.3%	7.3%	1.9%	.117
4. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	179	.209	.294	.354	.648	17.3%	9.5%	3.8%	.188

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Now take a look at these teams numbers in hitter's counts:

Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams on Hitter's Counts

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	24	.611	.667	.722	1.389	0.0%	20.8%	0.0%	.474
2. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	40	.423	.615	.808	1.423	0.0%	30.0%	7.7%	.519
3. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	41	.333	.500	.467	.967	0.0%	22.0%	3.3%	.161
4. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	43	.278	.395	.500	.895	0.0%	16.3%	5.6%	.306

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Now, check out the difference when these batters are facing pitcher's counts.

Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams on Pitcher's Counts

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	79	.269	.269	.526	.795	41.8%	0.0%	6.4%	.114
2. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	86	.205	.224	.337	.561	31.4%	0.0%	3.6%	.131
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	66	.203	.212	.266	.478	40.9%	0.0%	0.0%	.092
4. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	81	.150	.160	.250	.410	42.0%	0.0%	2.5%	.100

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Here's the other side - Pitchers Numbers for the LCS

Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	172	.201	.269	.312	.581	23.3%	8.1%	2.6%	.178
2. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	183	.217	.280	.380	.660	31.1%	7.7%	3.0%	.190
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	143	.225	.294	.372	.666	23.1%	7.7%	3.1%	.209
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	147	.214	.290	.275	.564	28.6%	9.5%	0.8%	.159

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Here's how the pitchers fare when they are behind on the count.

Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams: Hitters Counts

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	39	.367	.487	.600	1.087	0.0%	20.5%	6.7%	.323
2. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	37	.286	.432	.536	.968	0.0%	21.6%	3.6%	.345
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	29	.440	.517	.760	1.277	0.0%	13.8%	4.0%	.400
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	27	.182	.333	.227	.561	0.0%	18.5%	0.0%	.273

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Now, take a look at how effective these pitchers are when they are ahead on the count.

Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams: Hitters Counts

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	100	.163	.172	.306	.478	49.0%	0.0%	3.1%	.121
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	75	.203	.203	.270	.473	45.3%	0.0%	1.4%	.122
3. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	70	.100	.100	.143	.243	47.1%	0.0%	1.4%	.086
4. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	70	.132	.143	.221	.363	42.9%	0.0%	2.9%	.132

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

These are the four best teams, but only two will move on

These numbers show a key as to who will thrive and who won't survive. It's not the only key to these two LCS, but it is one you can count on and one you can track very easily.