The Red Sox Regression
Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 3:44PM
Bill Chuck in Clay Buchholz, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, JoJon Lester, Mike Napoli, Red Sox

Take a look at the AL East standings on April 19 and the Red Sox results since.

On April 19:

April 19 - May 15, 2013:

Nobody could have expected the Sox to have maintained their torrid start, so a regression was expected and occurred.

Let's examine some reasons for the Sox return to Earth 

Take a look at some individual differences

The Sox are heavily reliant upon their top three starters in their rotation and they have regressed:

The Bullpen

Their bullpen has been hit with a season-ending injury to Joel Hanrahan and a DL-inducing injury to Andrew Bailey.


Let's move to the offense, which has improved

The individual batting averages have been a mixed bag before and after April 19

So, where's the rub?

Perhaps you are wondering why I chose April 19th as my cutoff date

You see, on April 20 David Ortiz made his season's debut.

And while you certainly can't complain about Big Papi's .329 average with five homers and 20 RBI or his .321 average w/RISP, you do have to wonder if the team let down after his return or it was simply an expected regression to the mean.

We'll learn a ot more about this team over the next 25 games.

Article originally appeared on MLB Baseball Analytics (
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