A Sign of Baseball without Steroids
Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 7:03PM
Bill Chuck - Managing Editor in Bill Chuck Files, home runs, steroids

Fatigue is setting in.

You can see it in the bats that are slower crossing the plate.

You can see it in the fly balls that are dying on the warning track.

You can see it, with the exception of the Red Sox last night at Fenway against the Tigers, as fewer balls fly out of the park.

It's the after the break need of a break for many sluggers.

It's the absence of steroids in baseball 

It was not like that during the steroid era

Take a look at the home run totals in MLB after the break for the last 20 seasons.

Rk Year G HR
1 2004 2252 2625
2 1999 2246 2540
3 2001 2252 2475
4 2006 2216 2444
5 1998 2268 2433
6 2002 2250 2410
7 2000 2268 2381
8 2007 2236 2368
9 2012 2294 2342
10 2009 2222 2335
11 2005 2236 2332
12 1997 2134 2257
13 1996 2104 2243
14 2003 2060 2162
15 2011 2124 2124
16 1995 2126 2117
17 2010 2212 2113
18 2008 2002 2075
19 2013 1342 1241
20 1994 766 775
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/5/2013.

Leading Home Runs Hitters Before the Break

Here are the leading home runs hitters before the break with their strikeouts and their well-hit balls

2013 Leading HR hitters before the break
G PA AB HR HR% WH# K K%
Chris Davis (BAL) 95 393 343 37 10.8% 110 110 28.0%
Miguel Cabrera (DET) 93 428 362 30 8.3% 141 64 15.0%
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) 91 399 348 25 7.2% 94 45 11.3%
Carlos Gonzalez (COL) 91 395 354 25 7.1% 76 105 26.6%
Raul Ibanez (SEA) 73 296 277 24 8.7% 74 70 23.6%
Pedro Alvarez (PIT) 85 334 304 24 7.9% 77 109 32.6%
Adam Dunn (CWS) 87 360 310 24 7.7% 79 108 30.0%
Domonic Brown (PHI) 95 384 355 23 6.5% 70 72 18.8%
Nelson Cruz (TEX) 92 386 350 22 6.3% 97 94 24.4%
Robinson Cano (NYY) 95 409 354 21 5.9% 100 52 12.7%
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) 94 406 352 21 6.0% 105 82 20.2%
Mark Trumbo (LAA) 93 398 359 21 5.8% 81 98 24.6%
Adrian Beltre (TEX) 93 399 374 21 5.6% 108 42 10.5%
Jose Bautista (TOR) 87 390 335 20 6.0% 86 69 17.7%
Jay Bruce (CIN) 94 412 379 19 5.0% 100 112 27.2%
David Ortiz (BOS) 77 331 287 19 6.6% 109 43 13.0%
Carlos Beltran (STL) 84 350 330 19 5.8% 77 60 17.1%
Adam Jones (BAL) 96 413 395 19 4.8% 94 76 18.4%
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 9/5/2013

Leading Home Run Hitters After the Break

2013 Home Run Hitters After the Break
G PA AB HR HR% WH# K K%
Miguel Cabrera (DET) 35 142 125 13 10.4% 48 21 14.8%
Alfonso Soriano (NYY) 42 178 163 13 8.0% 26 47 26.4%
Jayson Werth (WSH) 43 180 152 11 7.2% 42 28 15.6%
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) 46 200 165 11 6.7% 48 13 6.5%
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) 42 199 156 10 6.4% 44 41 20.6%
Justin Morneau (PIT) 45 194 178 10 5.6% 39 38 19.6%
Freddie Freeman (ATL) 44 186 162 10 6.2% 44 32 17.2%
Evan Longoria (TB) 42 185 167 10 6.0% 47 49 26.5%
Darin Ruf (PHI) 43 173 152 10 6.6% 36 52 30.1%
Chris Davis (BAL) 42 183 154 10 6.5% 33 58 31.7%
Brandon Moss (OAK) 40 138 123 10 8.1% 31 28 20.3%
Adam Jones (BAL) 42 181 171 10 5.8% 47 33 18.2%
Will Venable (SD) 42 172 162 9 5.6% 31 38 22.1%
Torii Hunter (DET) 42 188 175 9 5.1% 34 30 16.0%
Nate Schierholtz (CHC) 39 151 141 9 6.4% 20 41 27.2%
Mitch Moreland (TEX) 44 141 122 9 7.4% 33 28 19.9%
Coco Crisp (OAK) 38 163 150 9 6.0% 25 21 12.9%
Chris Carter (HOU) 40 168 144 9 6.3% 33 61 36.3%
Brian Dozier (MIN) 43 203 184 9 4.9% 29 40 19.7%
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) 46 199 169 9 5.3% 56 33 16.6%
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 9/5/2013

Understand that the folks on this list are the HR leaders since the break.

So if you see a player on top, from the first half leaders, not on the bottom, that means that he hasn't hit at least nine homers since mid-July.

But it's more than that.

It's strikeout rates that have risen and the number of well hit balls that find grass or gloves instead of fans hands.

And that, my friends, is what baseball looks like without steroids.

Article originally appeared on MLB Baseball Analytics (https://baseballanalytics.org/).
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