Top
Search Archives
Analyze This

Do you have something you would like to analyze? Send us a note and we will be happy to do the research!

What's New
  • February 1 - MLB Heat
    Sidebar: Analytics from the Littles to the Bigs
  • January 30 - David Golebiewski
    Oswalt's Back, Breaking Stuff and Whiffs
  • January 30 - David Golebiewski
    Pat the Bat Calls it a Career
  • January 28 - David Golebiewski
    Reid Brignac on the Outside
  • January 28 - David Golebiewski
    Cody Ross: Lefty Masher

In Broadcast Analysis
Twitter Feeds
Contributors
  • Bill Chuck (Editor)
  • Dave Golebiewski
  • David Pinto
  • Jonathan Scippa
Mailing List
Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for our Email Newsletter
For Email Marketing you can trust
Follow Us

Analytics Posts
  • Baseball Analytics Blog RSS
Links

« Josh Willingham introduced in Minnesota | Main | D-Train a LOOGY in Training »
Tuesday
Dec132011

D-Backs Make Right Call in Cutting Saunders

In 2011, Joe Saunders tossed 212 innings, posted a 3.69 ERA and won 12 games. Judging by those metrics, the Diamondbacks' decision to non-tender the 30-year-old seems curious. After all, why cut loose a workhorse lefty with an ERA much better than the NL average for starters (3.94)? The are two perfectly good reasons: Saunders has little chance of repeating that performance, and he's precisely the sort of pitcher who gets more money than he's worth in arbitration.

Saunders' 3.69 ERA was more the product of favorable bounces and timely outs than skill. Baseball Reference informs us that Saunders' nickname is "Bazooka Joe," but I'm not sure why. He struck out just 12.4% of the batters he faced, which ranked in the 15th percentile among starting pitchers (meaning he was worse than 85% of SP in that category). Saunders' control was OK but hardly Maddux-esque, as his 7.7 BB% placed in the 44th percentile. And he was worse than 82 percent of starters when it came to keeping the ball in the park, allowing a home run in 3.7% of opponent at-bats.

So, Saunders didn't miss bats, was a bit below average in avoiding walks and allowed lots of homers. How, then, did he post a 3.69 ERA when his Fielding Independent ERA was over a run higher, at 4.78? Saunders benefited from a .275 batting average on balls in play, which was 16 points lower than his mark from 2008-2010. He was especially lucky with runners in scoring position, with a .218 BABIP that was 80 points below his 2008-2010 average. In related news, Saunders stranded 77.7% of runners that got on base, compared to 72.1% the previous three years. That kind of Houdini act won't hold up.

Despite Saunders' dubious defense-independent stats, he was in for a handsome payday in arbitration. Research by Matt Swartz shows that arbitration panels mostly judge pitchers by back-of-the-baseball-card numbers: innings pitched, wins and ERA. And Saunders, with back-to-back 200+ inning seasons and 16-and-17 win campaigns in his past, was primed for a 2012 salary in the $8.5 to $9 million range. Considering that Saunders' 2012 ERA may well be closer to five than four (The Hardball Times' Oliver projects a 4.73 mark), that's a lot of coin for mediocrity. Plus, the Diamondbacks have arms like Josh Collmenter, Wade Miley and Barry Enright to fill out the back of their rotation. Top prospects like Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs could debut later in the season, too.

Arizona's decision to non-tender Saunders makes sense whether the team tries to bring him back or not. He's not worth a $9 million salary next season, and other teams know that as well. As such, Saunders might get a multi-year offer but almost assuredly won't get $9 million per year. Players almost always get less money through arbitration than when they can market their services to all 30 clubs as a free agent, but Saunders' ERA and win totals mean more to arbitration panels than to teams who will note the discrepancy between results and process. After all, would you give $9 million to a durable Zach Duke?

 

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

EmailEmail Article to Friend

Reader Comments (3)

Lega Serie A, Juventus 1-1 Roma:
Juventus (4-3-3): 1-Gianluigi Buffon wear landon donovan cleats/26-Stephan Lichtsteiner, 15-Andrea Barzagli wear nike ctr360 maestri ii elite, 19-Leonardo Bonucci, 3-Giorgio Chiellini wear wayne rooney cleats/8-Claudio Marchisio, 21-Andrea Pirlo wear nike tiempo legend iv, 22-Arturo Vidal/7-Simone Pepe wear cristiano ronaldo cleats (86' 17-Eljero Elia), 32-Alessandro Matri wear nani cleats (68' 18-Fabio Quagliarella), 28-Marcelo Estigarribia wear nike mercurial vapor superfly iii (72' 24-Emanuele Giaccherini).
Roma (4-3-1-2): 24-Maarten Stekelenburg wear nike total 90 laser iv/11-Rodrigo Taddei, 16-Daniele De Rossi wear messi soccer cleats, 5-Gabriel Heinze, 3-Jose Angel wear adidas adipower predator sl/15-Miralem Pjanic (74' 20-Simone Perrotta wear adidas f50 adizero trx), 92-Vincenzo Viviani (58' 30-Fabio Simplicio wear adidas adipure iv sl), 23-Leandro Greco/8-Erik Lamela wear mercurial superfly iii/10-Francesco Totti, 9-Pablo Osvaldo wear adidas adipower predator (87' 22-Marco Borriello).

December 14, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterbuysoccercleat

Zinedine Zidane and Ronaldo charity event 5-4 Hamburg-Star team: Hamburg lead the opening eight minutes, Mehdi Mahdavikia wear nike mercurial vapor superfly iii right pass, the captain Mladen Petric wear adipure iv 8 meters away from the door left foot goal, 1-0. The first 12 minutes, Zinedine Zidane wear nike tiempo legend iv elite personal breakthrough ball, Ronaldo shot by Jay Goltz did not hesitate to confiscate. The first 18 minutes, Mladen Petric pass closed, Ze Roberto wear cristiano ronaldo cleats left foot shot, 2-0. 22 minutes, Michel Salgado on the right ball skipped by Jay Goltz, for the first time to participate in anti-poverty defined race Didier Drogba wear nike mercurial vapor superfly iii cr at 3 m in front of goal, 1-2. The first 27 minutes, Ronaldo broke into the closed ball Road extraordinary, Didier Drogba on the right and then pass, Ronaldo wear adidas adipower predator 12 meters in front of goal, 2-2. After Levin Lyman replaced Fabien Barthez. 34 minutes, Claude Makelele wear adidas adipure iv sl shot by Jay Goltz wear nike ctr360 maestri ii elite brave saved. 37 minutes, Robert Pires wear wayne rooney cleats received a passing shot was again Ronaldo Jay Goltz resolved. 39 minutes, Joan Capdevila wear messi soccer cleats closed on the left goal, 3-2. The second half, both teams replaced most of the first, Zinedine Zidane and Luis Figo also stay in the field. 58 minutes, Zinedine Zidane and elegant heel the ball to win applause. The first 59 minutes, Luis Figo closed front ball, Michel Salgado wear mercurial vapor superfly iii 10 meters away from the door on the right goals, 4-2. Nelson Dida wear nike total 90 laser iv and Gheorghe Hagi wear adipower predator sl came off the bench. 63 minutes, Rincon wear tiempo legend iv restricted scoring 3-4. 72 minutes, Luis Figo go past a row Hoogma wear adidas f50 adizero trx, into the restricted area on the left shot through the goalkeeper Ronnie Brewer, 5 goals-3. 89 minutes, Son HeungMin wear nike mercurial vapor superfly iii cr score, 4-5.

December 14, 2011 | Unregistered Commenterbuysoccercleat2u

In the last round of League after losing to Chelsea, the Premier League leaders Manchester the enemy Arsenal face. nike tiempo legend iv According to" Daily Mail" message, in preparation for the battle of the training sessions, limelight strong Mario Balotelli wear nike mercurial vapor superfly iii and caused trouble," Youth" and teammate Richard Dodds wear nike total 90 laser iv because speech physical confrontation took place, but team timely mediate prevented the situation into one of deterioration.

The wear nike ctr360 maestri ii elite war with Chelsea, Manchester City rival therefore ended the league season unbeaten jinshen. But adidas f50 adizero trx in that game, Mario Balotelli play still be obvious to people, his goal is adidas adipower predator trx to help the city to restore a face. Balotelli is also a continuation of the recent good form, became Mancini's right-hand man. adidas adipure iv sl Of course, the world belongs to Mario Balotelli never goals so simple, the scene is infinite, OTC is eye-catching, cheap adidas soccer cleats this time, Mario Balotelli wear cheap soccer cleats will show stage change to the training ground.

In preparing for and Arsenal's training class Mario Balotelli wear cheap soccer jerseys and teammate Richard this conflict. According to the description of" the cheap nike soccer cleats training course is drawing to a close, however, Mario Balotelli wear cheap puma soccer cleats and Richard have had a quarrel, because at the time of Richard I have a ball, while the Mario Balotelli wear cheap mizuno soccer cleats began to chatter without stop, until England defender lose your cool. Two then evolved into a physical confrontation nike ctr360".

However, team-mate Toure milliner and kompany et al found timely, nike total 90 immediately stepped forward to stop in two, after much effort, adidas predator is to prevent a further deterioration of the situation.lionel messi soccer cleats And coach Mancini even on this matter has not made any criticism, only will then all people call together, nike ctr360 maestri ii visible Italy boss had already used to the Mario Balotelli wear nike tiempo efforts. Mancini thought that two people is a small quarrel just will not affect the team's harmony and adidas adipure arsenal.
Liverpool Club on the official website announced the November player of the winner, Brazil international Lucas by 65% of the voters. Bellamy wear Nike Total 90 Laser IV with 8% of the vote in the second row, 6% column third Suarez. For because of left knee cruciate ligament tear for the season for Lucas wear Nike Mercurial Superfly III, was elected the monthly best is an affirmation and comfort.

Throughout the November, Mizuno Supersonic Wave II Liverpool played 4 games, record of 2 wins, 2 smooth rice, Lucas in the 4 game is to play first identity, Nike Tiempo Legend IV and in the 3 games played, 2-0 eliminated Chelsea in the Carling Cup, is because the wound is Nike CTR360 Maestri II changed ahead of schedule. Lucas beat Chelsea in 10 days, the eye-catching performance, 1-1 drew with Manchester City, Lucas wear Adidas F50 Adizero TRX performance is be obvious to people. At Dalgliesh's training, this season's Lucas wear Adidas Adipower Predator TRX performance is very stable, in after Mascherano left, the Brazil midfielder has been successfully took the Adidas Adipure IV SL brother Mark gun, became the mainstay of the Liverpool midfielder.

At present, after the operation the Lucas wear Soccer cleats Brazil domestic is injured, his compatriot Aurelio to represent him for the player of the month honors, Aurelio wear Mizuno soccer cleats said:" he spent a lot of time to improve themselves, regardless of the physical state and confidence are strengthened. Lucas wear Adidas soccer cleats at this time injury is very unfortunate, this season he has given us a lot of help, Nike soccer cleats we will miss him, yesterday I and him on the phone, he feels better, he hopes to soon be able to shake off the injury. Lucas wear Cheap soccer cleats every game I have seen, his performance was very good, worthy of the award."

December 16, 2011 | Unregistered Commentercheap soccer cleats

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
|
 
Some HTML allowed: