Hitters Not Taking Bard's Bait

While reliever-to-starter conversions are proving successful on both sides of Chicago (Jeff Samardzija for the Cubs and Chris Sale for the White Sox), the same can't be said for Boston's Daniel Bard. The erstwhile set-up man, whose most recent starting experience as a pro prior to this season was a walk-a-thon in A-Ball back in 2007, has tallied more free passes (29) than strikeouts (28) for the Red Sox while posting a 90 ERA+.

A major reason why Bard is handing out so many base on balls is that batters aren't taking his bait on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. In fact, Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez is the only starting pitcher with a lower opponent chase rate this year:

Lowest Chase Rates among SPs (min. 150 batters faced)

Pitcher	Chase Pct.
Ubaldo Jimenez	20.0%
Daniel Bard	20.3%
Jeanmar Gomez	21.0%
Philip Humber	22.1%
Ervin Santana	23.1%
Brandon Beachy	23.9%
Brandon Morrow	23.9%
C. J. Wilson	23.9%
Yovani Gallardo	24.0%
Erik Bedard	24.0%
MLB Avg. for SP	28.4%

Bard has a below-average chase rate with his low-90s fastball and low-80s slider, but it's his hard, upper 80s changeup that hitters are really laying off:

Bard's Chase Rate By Pitch Type

Pitch	Pct. Thrown	Chase Pct.	MLB Avg.
Fastball	55	22.2	25.7
Slider	26	25	35.5
Changeup	19	11	35.8

Bard often locates his changeup high-and-away to lefty batters...

Bard's changeup location, 2012...But they're not biting. Take a look at hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Bard's changeup, and then the league average for lefty batters against righty pitchers: 

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Bard's changeup, 2012

Average swing rate by lefty hitters vs. right-handed changeups, 2012

Perhaps Bard's chase rate will get a boost when he takes on the Tigers tonight (7 PM EST, ESPN). Collectively, Detroit's disappointing offensive attack (ninth in the AL in runs scored) has a 30 percent chase rate. Here are the Tigers taking few pitches thrown off the plate in 2012:

Highest Chase Rates among Tigers Hitters

Batter	Chase Pct.
Delmon Young	39.9%
Brennan Boesch	37.3%
Andy Dirks	35.3%
Danny Worth	33.3%
Ramon Santiago	32.4%
Miguel Cabrera	31.9%
Prince Fielder	30.7%
Don Kelly	30.4%