Top
Search Archives
Analyze This

Do you have something you would like to analyze? Send us a note and we will be happy to do the research!

What's New
  • September 8 - David Golebiewski
    Maholm's Breaking Stuff Getting Chases, Ks in Atlanta
  • September 8 - Bill Chuck
    Derek Jeter has another three hit game
  • September 8 - Bill Chuck
    How many 30+ homer hitters will we have this season?
  • September 8 - David Golebiewski
    Ellsbury's Pull Power Disappears
  • September 8 - Bill Chuck
    Tim Lincecum, simply out of control

In Broadcast Analysis
Twitter Feeds
Contributors
  • Bill Chuck
  • Dave Golebiewski
  • Daniel McCarthy
  • David Pinto
  • Jonathan Scippa
Mailing List
Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for our Email Newsletter
For Email Marketing you can trust
Follow Us

Analytics Posts
  • Baseball Analytics Blog RSS
Links

« Bill Chuck's Nine to Know: NL Edition | Main | Brett Jackson: Whiff Machine »
Monday
Sep032012

The fading Jered Weaver

It's hard to look at a pitcher who has a record like Jered Weaver and say that he's in a slump, but at the time when the Angels are struggling to avoid major disappointing season, Weaver seems to be fading.

When you look at Weaver's 16-4 record after losing a 2-1 squeaker to the Mariners yesterday, I don't blame you for wondering what I'm writing about. Particularly when you add that Weaver's ERA is 2.86 and his WHIP of 1.029 is the best in the AL. But, you need to realize that through his starts of August 6, Weaver was 13-1 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.916 WHIP.

Look at his numbers in his last five starts:

Date

GS 

CG 

Tm

W-L 

W-L 

IP 

H  

R  

ER 

BB 

SO 

HR 

ERA 

BAA

8/12 - 9/2

5

0

2-3 1-3

29.1  

34 

21 

20

11

20

7

6.14

.293

 WHIP = 1.546                          

 

But as you compare his heat maps up to and through his August 6 starts to those from August 12 and beyond, you see an entirely different (and probably tired) pitcher.

Here's Weaver in his first 20 starts when batters hit .197 against him:

Now look at Weaver in his last five starts in which batters have hit nearly 100 points better:

Batters are now hitting .343 on the lower half of the plateHere is why I think the Weaver fatigue factor does not bode well for the Angels postseason hopes.

In Weaver's first 20 starts, batters hit .191 against his fastball and slugged .292:

Lefties hit .173 against Weaver's fastball and righties hit .221

In Weaver's last five starts, batters have hit .245 against his fastball and slugged .472:

Lefties are hitting .229 and righties are hitting .278

Don't be entirely fooled by the 2-1 score yesterday. Weaver gave up solo home runs to Jesus Montero (who owns Weaver) and Carlos Peguero and took a line drive off his right shoulder in the 5th. Weaver remained in the game but walked two of the next six batters and was pulled when his pitch count was at just 86.

Hopefully it was nothing more than a bruise to Weaver's shoulder and maybe the short outing will do him good; his only win in his last five outings came on August 22 against the Red Sox (yes, it still counts) after he threw just 58 pitches in just three innings while getting clobbered for nine runs by the Rays on August 17.

For the Angels to reach the postseason they need to hit with runners in scoring position (they're hitting just .259) and a winning Weaver.

 

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

EmailEmail Article to Friend

Reader Comments

There are no comments for this journal entry. To create a new comment, use the form below.

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
|
 
Some HTML allowed: