CC Sabathia's Diminishing Fastball 2008-2013

CC Sabathia is a work horse who is at his strongest and his best in the final months of the season.

Sabathia month by month career numbers

I	Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
	April/March	24	16	.600	4.05	61	61	3	0	387.0	369	188	174	34	135	320	1.302
	May	37	22	.627	3.47	75	75	6	3	505.2	490	210	195	55	135	386	1.236
	June	34	13	.723	3.55	64	64	4	2	420.2	377	186	166	25	119	360	1.179
	July	26	25	.510	4.00	63	63	8	3	411.1	405	208	183	38	149	367	1.347
	August	44	13	.772	3.25	68	68	8	3	476.1	444	183	172	51	117	452	1.178
	Sept/Oct	31	17	.646	2.86	64	64	6	1	443.1	362	156	141	35	130	400	1.110

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 6/2/2013.

After he defeated the Red Sox, this past Friday night, Joe Girardi made the statement that CC is right where he should be for this time of the year and talked about how Sabathia was hitting speeds that he had not reached earlier in the season.

The manager was right in terms of speed, but the significant dropoff should not be minimized.

Let's take a look at Sabathia's fastball over the years

Start of the season to May 31

• 2008: 1241 total pitches thrown, 735 fastballs 59.2%, avg vel: 93.1 max vel: 96.9, 336 swings - 44 misses, BBA - .340 (!), seven homers, 88-92 mph: 155 fastballs, 93 mph+: 552
• 2009: 1207 total pitches thrown, 683 fastballs 56.6%, avg vel: 93.9 max vel: 97.3, 319 swings - 37 misses, BBA - .255, two homers, 88-92 mph: 90 fastballs, 93 mph+: 593
• 2010: 1084 total pitches thrown, 508 fastballs 46.9%, avg vel: 93.1 max vel: 98.3, 193 swings - 26 misses, BBA - .260, two homers, 88-92 mph: 157 fastballs, 93 mph+: 351
• 2011: 1317 total pitches thrown, 507 fastballs 38.7%, avg vel: 93.0 max vel: 96.1, 225 swings - 30 misses, BBA - .225, three homers, 88-92 mph: 150 fastballs, 93 mph+: 357
• 2012: 1103 total pitches thrown, 435 fastballs 39.4%, avg vel: 92.3 max vel: 95.5, 204 swings - 20 misses, BBA - .230, two homers, 88-92 mph: 243 fastballs 39.4%, 93 mph+: 191
• 2013: 1242 total pitches thrown, 521 fastballs 41.9%, avg vel: 90.3 max vel: 93.6, 232 swings - 32 misses, BBA - .292, six homers, 88-92 mph: 506 fastballs 41.9%, 93 mph+: 15 (12 in his start against Boston on 5/31, two in his start against Tampa Bay on 5/26, and one in his start on 4/27 against Toronto)

Numbers to note 

• In 2008, Sabathia's fastball as being hit successfully, but batters only hit .089 against his cutter. In April that year he was 1-4 with a 7.88 ERA. He finished the season 17-10, going 11-2 for Milwaukee after being acquired from Cleveland on July 7.
• In 2008, he had 552 pitches of 93+ mph in April and May.
• 2009 was the last season that Sabathia was a fastball pitcher the majority of the time. While CC throws the fastball more than any other pitcher, it is now around 40% mark most starts of seasons.
• 2009 was the peak of his throwing fastballs 93+ mph.
• The drop in 93+ fastballs was precipitous starting in 2012. 

What a difference five years make

Look at the top line to see Sabathia's pitches

2008

2013

As the weather heats up, it will be interesting to see if CC does as well.

However if he doesn't, it will get very ugly very quickly in the Bronx,