Dee Gordon's Fastball Problem

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon leads the major leagues with 24 stolen bases this season. That's remarkable considering how infrequently he, you know, gets on base. Gordon ranks in the bottom ten among qualified hitters in both OBP (.277) and OPS+ (55) this season. In fact, Flash's son could make some fleet-footed-yet-offensively-futile history this year. Currently on pace for 51 steals, Gordon could "top" Bert Campaneris (.278 OBP in 1972) for the lowest OBP ever among players with 50-plus stolen bases in a season and Willy Taveras (55 OPS+ in 2008) for the lowest OPS+.

While no one expected the 5-foot-11, 160 pound Gordon to hit with authority in the majors, he's trying to avoid historic offensive lows among stolen base kings because he can't hit the fastball. Check out Gordon's slugging percentage against the heat this season, and then the league average:

Gordon's slugging percentage by location vs. fastballs, 2012

Average fastball slugging percentage by location, 2012

Gordon has a .277 slugging percentage versus fastballs this season, nearly 170 points below the big league average and fourth-worst among qualified hitters:

Lowest slugging percentage versus fastballs, 2012

Batter	Slugging Pct.
Brendan Ryan	.253
Carlos Santana	.257
Dustin Ackley	.267
Dee Gordon	.277
Justin Smoak	.280
Jamey Carroll	.282
Dayan Viciedo	.308
Shane Victorino	.311
A. J. Ellis	.312
Yunel Escobar	.314
MLB Avg.	.444

So, Gordon can't hit the fastball. And pitchers are well aware: Dee has seen the 11th-highest percentage of fastballs (four-seamers and two-seamers) among qualified hitters this year:

Highest fastball percentage among hitters, 2012

Batter	Fastball Pct.
Jemile Weeks	59.3%
Mike Trout	55.9%
Dexter Fowler	55.9%
Jamey Carroll	55.7%
Derek Jeter	54.6%
Cliff Pennington	53.5%
Orlando Hudson	53.5%
Gregor Blanco	53.1%
Denard Span	52.9%
Adrian Gonzalez	52.9%
Dee Gordon	52.4%
Joe Mauer	52.3%
Josh Reddick	52.3%
Michael Cuddyer	51.8%
Elvis Andrus	51.8%
MLB Avg.	47.3%

Pitchers don't fool around when they throw Gordon a fastball, either. They're placing 56 percent of them within the strike zone, well above the 52 percent MLB average. Why wouldn't they pound the zone, considering the worst that can happen is a slap single the other way?

Gordon is never, ever going to be confused with a power hitter. But he'll need to find a way to stop strumming the banjo so hard against fastballs if he's going to avoid being overmatched right into the history books.  

Dee Gordon's Going Up Swinging

During a 2011 season filled with family feuds and fiscal woes, rookie shortstop Dee Gordon is giving Dodgers fans something to smile about on days when Matt Kemp's not cracking homers or Clayton Kershaw's not on the mound. The 23-year-old is batting near .300 and has nabbed 17 bases in 21 tries since his June call-up, hinting at the talent that led Baseball America to rank him as the 26th-best prospect in the game this past spring.

However, that's not to say that Gordon, who didn't play baseball until his senior year of high school and had just one year at an NAIA school before being drafted, is a refined talent. Flash's son might be a blur on the bases and a high-contact hitter, but he also has just two walks in 145 MLB plate appearances. In fact, no hitter with 100+ plate appearances has taken ball four less often than Gordon. That's because he's swinging at everything between Chavez Ravine and Sacramento.

First, take a look at the average swing rate by pitch location for a left-handed hitter:

Overall, lefties offer at 45 percent of pitches thrown, including 28 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Now, look at Gordon's swing rate:

Dee is swinging at slightly over 58 percent of pitches seen overall, and a whopping 47 percent of pitches tossed out of the zone. Both of those are big league highs.

With superb speed and a penchant for making contact, Gordon could be the sort of hitter who keeps his average near .300. But, with a 5-foot-11, 150 pound (listed) frame that conjures up images of Urkel, he's got about as much chance of hitting for power as Frank McCourt has of becoming Bud Selig's BFF. For Gordon to become a true top-of-the-order dynamo and get on base at a good clip, he'll need to start walking more than once a month.