Gaby Sanchez on the Outside

The Miami Marlins, trying to stay in the Wild Card chase as a run at the NL East title looks about as likely as Ozzie Guillen giving up cursing, added Carlos Lee from the Houston Astros in exchange for prospects Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen. While the 36-year-old Lee is no longer the hard-hitting El Caballo of years past (he's got a 103 OPS+ this year), the Marlins at least hope he can avoid turning in the sort of utterly disastrous performance that is Gaby Sanchez's 2012 season.

Sanchez posted a combined 111 OPS+ during his first two years as a starter in the majors, but the 28-year-old has tanked to the tune of a 49 OPS+ in a little less than 200 plate appearances this year. If the former Miami Hurricane now on the outs with the club that drafted him in the fourth round of the 2005 draft is going to re-establish himself as a big leaguer, he'll have to start making louder contact on the outer half of the plate.

Sanchez has never been a big slugger on outer-half pitches, but he at least avoided getting the bat knocked out of his hands when pitchers threw outside in 2010-11:

Sanchez's slugging percentage by pitch location, 2010-11

He slugged .393 against pitches thrown on the outer half, slightly above the .384 big league average. But in 2012, the newest and least happy member of the New Orleans Zephyrs has made next to no hard contact on the outer half:

Sanchez's slugging percentage by pitch location, 2012

Sanchez is slugging .171 on the outer half this season. That's the worst mark in the game among batters with at least 150 plate appearances and nearly 40 points lower than the next-worst hitter, Minnesota's Alexi Casilla. Opponents have keyed in on Sanchez's outside slugging woes, locating 58 percent of their pitches on the outer half and doing so 53 percent of the time in 2010-11.

Is Lee a real upgrade over Sanchez? Maybe. ZiPS projects Lee to top Sanchez in OPS slightly during the rest of the 2012 season (.761 for Lee, .735 for Sanchez). If you think Sanchez's issues on the outer half will persist, the trade is a decent stopgap that comes with cash to pay Lee's salary and no premium farm talent surrendered. If you think Sanchez's work in 2010-11 is more indicative of his talent level, it's more a case of adding a big name than a big upgrade at first base.

Gaby Sanchez's Hot Start

(Click to enlarge)

Gaby Sanchez is off to a hot start for the Florida Marlins.  He's tenth in the league in wOBA and batting average, and eighth in on-base percentage.  Sanchez has been equally dangerous against lefties and righties, with a .397/.396 wOBA split respectively.

Here's a look at how Sanchez's 2011 start stacks up against last season:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	HR%	wOBA
Games through 5/24/2010	.279	.369	.442	17.9%	11.3%	2.7%	.357
Games through 5/24/2011	.326	.406	.509	13.9%	11.9%	4.0%	.397

	LD AVG	FB AVG	GB AVG	LD%	FB%	GB%	HR/FB
Games through 5/24/2010	.720	.250	.238	21.4%	41.0%	35.9%	6.3%
Games through 5/24/2011	.806	.213	.258	20.8%	32.9%	41.6%	12.8%

Much of the difference between the two starts can be attributed to the long ball. Even though Sanchez is hitting fewer fly balls this season, he's producing HRs at a better rate. From his heat map, you can see he's generating a ton of power on balls on the inner half of the plate.

The one issue Gaby Sanchez has had this season has been hitting changeups. He's faced 73 changeups this season with a 59.5% contact rate. He's yet to get a single hit off the pitch (0 for 25), while striking out nine times. If he doesn't work on picking up the change better, pitchers are really going to come after him with it the rest of the season.