Phil Coke, Not the Real Thing?

So, Jim Leyland is not admitting it but with the ongoing  headaches caused by Jose Valverde it appears that the Tigers bullpen is going the closer-by-committee route.

Batters are hitting .500

According to the Detroit News, Valverde has been working with pitching coach Jeff Jones on mechanical issues .

"Part of it was his tempo was a little bit slow and we're trying to speed that up," Jones said. "When you get in a situation like he did where he had a couple of games in a row, it affects your confidence a little bit too.

"I think he's put it behind him and we're going to the World Series and he knows he's going to be a big part of that."

For Valverde, fixing his issues is about repetition and muscle memory to solidify his motion.

"It's my leg. My leg is a little slow and now it feels all right," Valverde said.

"It's timing and everything. I worked out for Jonesy in the last two days and everything's perfect right now."

The question is does Leyland buy it?

And if he doesn't, it seems that he will be turning to his left-handed specialist, Phil Coke who has 7.1 scoreless innings this postseason including two saves against the Yankees.

But there is evidence that Coke is not a credible alternative.

Let's look at the WHIP (Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitched), a key determinant of the effectiveness of relievers, of the relievers with at least 50 appearances.

Here are the 15 best relievers with a WHIP under 1.00:

Rk	Player	WHIP	GR	Tm	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA
1	Craig Kimbrel	0.654	63	ATL	56	42	62.2	27	7	7	14	116	1.01
2	Fernando Rodney	0.777	76	TBR	65	48	74.2	43	9	5	15	76	0.60
3	Jake McGee	0.795	69	TBR	13	0	55.1	33	13	12	11	73	1.95
4	Aroldis Chapman	0.809	68	CIN	52	38	71.2	35	13	12	23	122	1.51
5	Kenley Jansen	0.846	65	LAD	40	25	65.0	33	18	17	22	99	2.35
6	Sergio Romo	0.849	69	SFG	27	14	55.1	37	11	11	10	63	1.79
7	Casey Janssen	0.864	62	TOR	47	22	63.2	44	18	18	11	67	2.54
8	Jason Motte	0.917	67	STL	58	42	72.0	49	23	22	17	86	2.75
9	Jared Burton	0.919	64	MIN	12	5	62.0	41	21	15	16	55	2.18
10	Grant Balfour	0.924	75	OAK	34	24	74.2	41	21	21	28	72	2.53
11	Darren O'Day	0.940	69	BAL	10	0	67.0	49	17	17	14	69	2.28
12	Ryan Cook	0.941	71	OAK	23	14	73.1	42	18	17	27	80	2.09
13	Ernesto Frieri	0.985	67	TOT	51	23	66.0	35	20	17	30	98	2.32
14	Joel Peralta	0.985	76	TBR	9	2	67.0	49	28	27	17	84	3.63
15	Jon Rauch	0.988	73	NYM	22	4	57.2	45	28	23	12	42	3.59

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/23/2012.

Here are the 13 with a WHIP of 1.500 and above

Rk	Player	WHIP	GR	Tm	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA
1	Mike Dunn	1.773	60	MIA	8	1	44.0	49	31	24	29	47	4.91
2	Rhiner Cruz	1.709	52	HOU	26	0	55.0	65	38	37	29	46	6.05
3	Manny Parra	1.653	62	MIL	8	0	58.2	62	39	33	35	61	5.06
4	Phil Coke	1.648	66	DET	11	1	54.0	71	28	24	18	51	4.00
5	Clay Hensley	1.579	60	SFG	14	3	50.2	50	30	26	30	42	4.62
6	Heath Bell	1.555	73	MIA	41	19	63.2	70	38	36	29	59	5.09
7	Carlos Marmol	1.536	61	CHC	47	20	55.1	40	24	21	45	72	3.42
8	Ryan Webb	1.525	65	MIA	21	0	60.1	72	30	27	20	44	4.03
9	Jonny Venters	1.517	66	ATL	12	0	58.2	61	23	21	28	69	3.22
10	Jose Veras	1.507	72	MIL	17	1	67.0	61	29	27	40	79	3.63
11	Jamey Wright	1.507	66	LAD	22	0	67.2	72	35	28	30	54	3.72
12	Logan Ondrusek	1.500	63	CIN	20	2	54.2	51	23	21	31	39	3.46
13	Lucas Luetge	1.500	63	SEA	16	2	40.2	37	20	18	24	38	3.98

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/23/2012.

You can see that Coke had the fourth worst WHIP of all relievers with at least 50 appearances and it's not because of lack of control.

Let's take a look at Coke's ever-increasing batting average against:

Year	G	PA	AB	R	H	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	12	52	50	1	8	2	14	.160	.192	.200	.392
2009	72	238	211	34	44	20	49	.209	.274	.393	.668
2010	74	279	244	29	67	26	53	.275	.350	.348	.699
2011	48	474	423	64	118	40	69	.279	.345	.383	.728
2012	66	245	219	28	71	18	51	.324	.375	.479	.854
5 Yrs	272	1288	1147	156	308	106	236	.269	.332	.388	.720
MLB Averages								.259	.326	.408	.734

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2012.

It is not just an increasing batting average against that speaks to concerns about Coke, a quick look under-the-hood shows that the lefty struggles against right-handed batters.

Split	AB	R	H	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHB as LHP	101	20	40	10	21	.396	.446	.604	1.050
vs LHB as LHP	118	14	31	8	30	.263	.313	.373	.685

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/24/2012.

Of course, thus far in the postseason it's been different for Coke: overall batters are hitting .154 against him with lefties and righties each hitting .154 (2-for-14 with one walk). 

If that's the pitcher that faces the Giants, you can assume that Leyland will have a Coke and a smile.

Curtis Granderson, the right man against lefties

December 9, 2009 was a date that has had a profound affect on three teams that are in first place today. On that date, the Detroit Tigers sent Edwin Jackson to the Arizona Diamondbacks and Curtis Granderson to the New York Yankees. The Yankees sent Phil Coke and Austin Jackson to the Detroit Tigers. The New York Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks sent Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to the Detroit Tigers. Talk about deals that deserve the Charlie Sheen Award for WIN-WIN-WIN!

Austin Jackson finished second in the AL last season in the Rookie of the Year voting. Ian Kennedy at 15-4 is getting some Cy Young Award talk this season and now, Curtis Granderson is in the mix for the AL MVP award this season. The Grandy Man leads the league in runs with 114, in triples with 10, in RBI with 98 and has 35 homers and a .965 OPS.

Watching Granderson's improvement has been dramatic. Let me remind you that on July 7 of last season he was hitting .225 and hitting seventh in the Yankee lineup. 

Here's what Granderson looked like up to July 7 last season:

Granderson was hitting a weak .225Granderson only had 8 doubles, 4 triples, and 7 homers.

But it was his inability to hit lefties that was killing him:

Granderson was .198 against leftiesHe had 2 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer.

Then along came Kevin Long:

Granderson hit .257 from July 9 onGranderson worked hard with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long and it produced results. He had 9 doubles, 3 triples, and 17 homers to end 2010 strongly.

Here's how he did against lefties from July 9 on:

Grandy hit .257 against lefties and .257 against rightiesAgainst lefties he had 3 doubles and 3 homers, but more importantly he had started getting better plate coverage.

Up to July 7, from the inside to the middle of the plate against lefties, Granderson was getting killed hitting .156. From the middle to the outside of the plate against lefties, Granderson hit .203. From July 9 on from the inside to the middle of the plate against lefties Granderson hit .429. From the middle to the outside of the plate against lefties, Granderson hit .257. 

Jump to 2011:

Grandy is hitting .281 overall this season.

Grandy this season against lefties:

Now Granderson is hitting .281 against lefties and .281 against rightiesOf his 35 homers this season, 13 are against lefties.

Granderson's quick bat against lefties, Inside to the Middle of the plate:

Grandy is hitting .270

Granderson's quick bat against lefties, Middle to the Outside of the plate:

Grandy is hitting .278 with 12 homersLooking at these heat maps you can see the incredible difference in Granderson. Since last July 7, Granderson is hitting .276 with 31 doubles, 14 triples, and 53 homers.

Granderson has clearly been the right man against lefties this season, which means if we are looking at the postseason, the Texas Rangers with their three lefty starters have to prefer to face the Boston Red Sox.

A Quick Look at Matt Joyce

Matt Joyce (TB) has been one of the Rays best hitters this season.  He's 10th in the league in overall wOBA, and 7th among all lefties. 

Matt Joyce (Click to enlarge)

Joyce's power zones haven't changed much from last season when he hit .241/.360/.477.  You can see that there are fewer dead zones within the strike zone so far in 2011, and he's hitting outside pitches a bit better.

Joyce also has the third bast batting average against fastballs (.402) this season.  In fact, Joyce is hitting most pitches better this season.

Matt Joyce Batting Averages vs. Pitch Type

	Fastball	Changeup	Curveball	Slider	Cutter	Sinker
2010	.252	.259	.176	.150	.200	.375
2011	.402	.317	.200	.318	.182	.154

Joyce recently had a cortisone shot after experiencing shoulder soreness. He sat out Sunday and manager Joe Maddon hinted that he could be benched against lefty Phil Coke (DET) tonight.