The Fantasy Baseball Diary: Ryan Braun

"Who should be the first pick in fantasy baseball drafts?"

There are three primary candidates for you to consider: Mike Trout, Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera. We've already looked at the player profile on Mike Trout.  

Now, let's look at Ryan Braun's numbers

Year	LVL	AGE	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	FB%	GB%	LD%
2007	MLB	23	451	34	91	97	15	5	.324	.370	.634	.361	34.3%	40.7%	17.2%
2008	MLB	24	611	37	92	106	14	4	.285	.335	.553	.305	36.3%	39.0%	15.1%
2009	MLB	25	635	32	113	114	20	6	.320	.386	.551	.353	22.6%	47.6%	20.7%
2010	MLB	26	619	25	101	103	14	3	.304	.365	.501	.331	24.0%	48.7%	19.0%
2011	MLB	27	563	33	109	111	33	6	.332	.397	.597	.350	28.8%	42.9%	21.8%
2012	MLB	28	598	41	108	112	30	7	.319	.391	.595	.346	31.0%	44.4%	18.2%

Pros:

Miller Park, NL Central; power to all fields; durable; consistent

Cons:

Limited 30+ steal track record; Rickie Weeks; limited ceiling; Astros move to AL; inflated HR/FB rate

Analysis:

Last year I stayed away from Braun in all my drafts because of an irrational fear he would regress due to his potential PED 50-game suspension and the loss of Prince Fielder to the Tigers. I believed he would be walked more and see fewer pitches to hit because he wouldn’t have protection in the lineup. It turned out he put up better numbers than he did during his MVP season in 2011.

Then there is his strikeout rate, which was the highest it’s been since 2008 (18.9%). If this trend continues his batting average ceiling could be in the low .300s instead of the .320s.

Braun has just turned 29, which may impact on his stolen base potential. Instead of grabbing 30 bags, he may only steal bases in the low 20s.

Braun had a career high in home runs with 41, but the home run spike coincided with a career high in his HR/FB rate (22.8%). His average HR/FB rate for his career is 18.8%, so if he regresses back to his average he’ll be a 30-34 home player instead of a 41 homer player. But to be a contrarian, he plays in in Miller Park, the third best home run park for right-handed hitters, so it’s possible he can sustain the home run power he displayed last year.

Finally, also consider the move of the Houston Astros to the AL West. The Astros roster looks like a bad Triple-A team and he won't have the opportunity this season to play 16 games against a team that he hit .355 with four homers and 13 RBI last season.