Tuesday
Oct222013
Whiffing the Count
Bill Chuck - Managing Editor | Tuesday, October 22, 2013 at 11:30AM
Peter Abraham has an interesting article today, oddly placed on the front page (?!?) of the Boston Globe. The piece is somewhat of a validation of the Red Sox who set a franchise record with 1,308 strikeouts during the regular season and have added 106 more strikeouts in 10 postseason games.
The premise of his piece is that teams are willing to accept high strikeout totals if their hitters are disciplined and provide home run hitting power.
Abraham's focal point is Mike Napoli, who set a Sox franchise record with 187 strikeouts this season, but also hit 38 doubles and 23 home runs.
“You’d prefer somebody hit for power and not strike out often,” Sox assistant general manager Mike Hazen told Abraham. “But those guys are the superstars and they’re fairly rare. Sometimes you have to have an appreciation for what a good strikeout can do. You have to look at those long at-bats as contributing to the overall good of the lineup. Power is hard to find and you learn to live with the strikeouts.”
I felt this was a good place to start and I was immediately disavowed of the assumption. The Red Sox (97-65) did lead the majors in P/PA, but they were tied with the less-than-terrific Minnesota Twins (66-96). Granted the three teams with the lowest P/PA had horrible records, but I also noticed that both the Cardinals and Tigers were in the bottom five in the majors in P/PA.
Is there an ideal home run to strikeout ratio?
The majors leading home run hitting team, the Baltimore Orioles, hit one homer for every 5.30 strikeout. The Red Sox homered once every 7.34 strikeout. The Braves homered once every 7.64 strikeout. The Tigers homered once every 6.09 strikeout. The Rays homered once every 7.09 strikeout. The Cardinals homered once every 8.88 strikeout.
As I look at this, I do see Napoli building up the pitch count, but I also see a batter who strikes out way too much and doesn't produce enough homers to compensate for it. In this group, Paul Goldschmidt really excels and Chris Davis is steller. Marlon Byrd looks like a better Napoli, but he takes one less pitch per at bat, which comes out to three additional pitches against starters, which to me is worth the sacrifice.
There are numerous others who I like on this list who whiff less than 30% of the time.
This report shows you that amongst batters in the top ten in strikeouts, nobody worked the count more than Justin Upton.
This report shows you that amongst batters in the top ten in homers, nobody worked the count better than Paul Goldschmidt. Napoli when he homered saw 3.83 pitches.
This report shows you that amongst batters in the top ten in hits, nobody worked the count more than Mike Trout. Matt Carpenter and Dustin Pedroia both had very productive at bats that led to a hit. Napoli had productive at bats that ended up in a hit seeing 4.11 pitches.
This report shows you that amongst batters in the top eleven in walks, nobody worked the count more than Dan Uggla and Andrew McCutcheon. Napoli averaged 5.84 pitches in his 73 walks.
The premise of his piece is that teams are willing to accept high strikeout totals if their hitters are disciplined and provide home run hitting power.
Abraham's focal point is Mike Napoli, who set a Sox franchise record with 187 strikeouts this season, but also hit 38 doubles and 23 home runs.
“You’d prefer somebody hit for power and not strike out often,” Sox assistant general manager Mike Hazen told Abraham. “But those guys are the superstars and they’re fairly rare. Sometimes you have to have an appreciation for what a good strikeout can do. You have to look at those long at-bats as contributing to the overall good of the lineup. Power is hard to find and you learn to live with the strikeouts.”
Let's take a deeper dive looking at teams
Is pitches per plate appearance a reflection of a team's success?I felt this was a good place to start and I was immediately disavowed of the assumption. The Red Sox (97-65) did lead the majors in P/PA, but they were tied with the less-than-terrific Minnesota Twins (66-96). Granted the three teams with the lowest P/PA had horrible records, but I also noticed that both the Cardinals and Tigers were in the bottom five in the majors in P/PA.
2013 Regular Season Pitches Per Plate Appearance
| P/PA | |
|---|---|
| 1. Minnesota Twins | 4.02 |
| 2. Boston Red Sox | 4.02 |
| 3. Cleveland Indians | 3.95 |
| 4. Oakland Athletics | 3.94 |
| 5. New York Mets | 3.91 |
| 6. Seattle Mariners | 3.91 |
| 7. Toronto Blue Jays | 3.89 |
| 8. Tampa Bay Rays | 3.87 |
| 9. Pittsburgh Pirates | 3.86 |
| 10. Texas Rangers | 3.85 |
| 11. Chicago Cubs | 3.85 |
| 12. Atlanta Braves | 3.83 |
| 13. Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.83 |
| 14. Houston Astros | 3.82 |
| 15. New York Yankees | 3.81 |
| 16. San Diego Padres | 3.81 |
| 17. Los Angeles Angels | 3.81 |
| 18. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.81 |
| 19. Baltimore Orioles | 3.80 |
| 20. Cincinnati Reds | 3.80 |
| 21. Washington Nationals | 3.80 |
| 22. Miami Marlins | 3.79 |
| 23. Philadelphia Phillies | 3.78 |
| 24. San Francisco Giants | 3.77 |
| 25. Kansas City Royals | 3.77 |
| 26. St. Louis Cardinals | 3.76 |
| 27. Detroit Tigers | 3.76 |
| 28. Chicago White Sox | 3.76 |
| 29. Colorado Rockies | 3.72 |
| 30. Milwaukee Brewers | 3.72 |
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/22/2013
Is there an ideal home run to strikeout ratio?
The majors leading home run hitting team, the Baltimore Orioles, hit one homer for every 5.30 strikeout. The Red Sox homered once every 7.34 strikeout. The Braves homered once every 7.64 strikeout. The Tigers homered once every 6.09 strikeout. The Rays homered once every 7.09 strikeout. The Cardinals homered once every 8.88 strikeout.
2013 Regular Season Home Runs and Strikeouts
| HR | K | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Baltimore Orioles | 212 | 1,125 |
| 2. Seattle Mariners | 188 | 1,353 |
| 3. Oakland Athletics | 186 | 1,178 |
| 4. Toronto Blue Jays | 185 | 1,123 |
| 5. Atlanta Braves | 181 | 1,384 |
| 6. Boston Red Sox | 178 | 1,308 |
| 7. Texas Rangers | 176 | 1,067 |
| 8. Detroit Tigers | 176 | 1,073 |
| 9. Chicago Cubs | 172 | 1,230 |
| 10. Cleveland Indians | 171 | 1,283 |
| 11. Tampa Bay Rays | 165 | 1,171 |
| 12. Los Angeles Angels | 164 | 1,221 |
| 13. Washington Nationals | 161 | 1,192 |
| 14. Pittsburgh Pirates | 161 | 1,330 |
| 15. Colorado Rockies | 159 | 1,204 |
| 16. Milwaukee Brewers | 157 | 1,183 |
| 17. Cincinnati Reds | 155 | 1,245 |
| 18. Minnesota Twins | 151 | 1,430 |
| 19. Houston Astros | 148 | 1,535 |
| 20. Chicago White Sox | 148 | 1,207 |
| 21. San Diego Padres | 146 | 1,309 |
| 22. New York Yankees | 144 | 1,214 |
| 23. Philadelphia Phillies | 140 | 1,205 |
| 24. Los Angeles Dodgers | 138 | 1,146 |
| 25. New York Mets | 130 | 1,384 |
| 26. Arizona Diamondbacks | 130 | 1,142 |
| 27. St. Louis Cardinals | 125 | 1,110 |
| 28. Kansas City Royals | 112 | 1,048 |
| 29. San Francisco Giants | 107 | 1,078 |
| 30. Miami Marlins | 95 | 1,232 |
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/22/2013
Let's look at some individual numbers
Here are the 23 players with at least 140 strikeouts in 2013 with their homer and strikeout totals. I've also included their homer and strikeout percentages as well as their P/PA. I threw batting average in there as measure of consistency.As I look at this, I do see Napoli building up the pitch count, but I also see a batter who strikes out way too much and doesn't produce enough homers to compensate for it. In this group, Paul Goldschmidt really excels and Chris Davis is steller. Marlon Byrd looks like a better Napoli, but he takes one less pitch per at bat, which comes out to three additional pitches against starters, which to me is worth the sacrifice.
There are numerous others who I like on this list who whiff less than 30% of the time.
2013 Regular HR and Strikeouts
| HR | K | P/PA | HR% | K% | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Chris Carter (HOU) | 29 | 212 | 4.20 | 5.7% | 36.2% | .223 |
| 2. Chris Davis (BAL) | 53 | 199 | 3.97 | 9.1% | 29.6% | .286 |
| 3. Adam Dunn (CWS) | 34 | 189 | 4.29 | 6.5% | 31.1% | .219 |
| 4. Mike Napoli (BOS) | 23 | 187 | 4.58 | 4.6% | 32.4% | .259 |
| 5. Pedro Alvarez (PIT) | 36 | 186 | 3.92 | 6.5% | 30.3% | .233 |
| 6. Jay Bruce (CIN) | 30 | 185 | 3.96 | 4.8% | 26.5% | .262 |
| 7. Mark Trumbo (LAA) | 34 | 184 | 3.72 | 5.5% | 27.1% | .234 |
| 8. Dan Uggla (ATL) | 22 | 171 | 4.14 | 4.9% | 31.8% | .179 |
| 9. Evan Longoria (TB) | 32 | 162 | 4.00 | 5.2% | 23.4% | .269 |
| 10. Justin Upton (ATL) | 27 | 161 | 4.08 | 4.8% | 25.0% | .263 |
| 11. Josh Hamilton (LAA) | 21 | 158 | 3.73 | 3.6% | 24.8% | .250 |
| 12. Alfonso Soriano (NYY) | 34 | 156 | 3.74 | 5.9% | 24.9% | .255 |
| 13. Mark Reynolds (NYY) | 21 | 154 | 4.22 | 4.7% | 30.6% | .220 |
| 14. Alejandro De Aza (CWS) | 17 | 147 | 4.06 | 2.8% | 21.8% | .264 |
| 15. Carlos Gomez (MIL) | 24 | 146 | 3.67 | 4.5% | 24.7% | .284 |
| 16. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) | 36 | 145 | 4.12 | 6.0% | 20.4% | .302 |
| 17. Ian Desmond (WSH) | 20 | 145 | 3.69 | 3.3% | 22.1% | .280 |
| 18. Marlon Byrd (PIT) | 24 | 144 | 3.65 | 4.5% | 24.9% | .291 |
| 19. Jason Kipnis (CLE) | 17 | 143 | 4.19 | 3.0% | 21.7% | .284 |
| 20. Chase Headley (SD) | 13 | 142 | 3.96 | 2.5% | 23.7% | .250 |
| 21. Alex Gordon (KC) | 20 | 141 | 4.00 | 3.2% | 20.1% | .265 |
| 22. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) | 24 | 140 | 4.14 | 5.6% | 27.8% | .249 |
| 23. Brandon Moss (OAK) | 30 | 140 | 3.99 | 6.7% | 27.7% | .256 |
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/22/2013
Four Top 10 Lists
In closing, I wanted to look at four variables, strikeouts, homers, hits, and walks and what the P/PA was for the leaders in each category.This report shows you that amongst batters in the top ten in strikeouts, nobody worked the count more than Justin Upton.
2013 Top 10 Strikeout Leaders with P/PA
| K | P/PA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Chris Carter (HOU) | 212 | 4.87 |
| 2. Chris Davis (BAL) | 199 | 4.87 |
| 3. Adam Dunn (CWS) | 189 | 5.08 |
| 4. Mike Napoli (BOS) | 187 | 5.00 |
| 5. Pedro Alvarez (PIT) | 186 | 4.60 |
| 6. Jay Bruce (CIN) | 185 | 5.03 |
| 7. Mark Trumbo (LAA) | 184 | 4.55 |
| 8. Dan Uggla (ATL) | 171 | 5.02 |
| 9. Evan Longoria (TB) | 162 | 4.85 |
| 10. Justin Upton (ATL) | 161 | 5.10 |
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/22/2013
This report shows you that amongst batters in the top ten in homers, nobody worked the count better than Paul Goldschmidt. Napoli when he homered saw 3.83 pitches.
2013 HR Leaders with P/PA
| HR | P/PA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Chris Davis (BAL) | 53 | 3.40 |
| 2. Miguel Cabrera (DET) | 44 | 3.18 |
| 3. Pedro Alvarez (PIT) | 36 | 2.81 |
| 4. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) | 36 | 4.17 |
| 5. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) | 36 | 3.06 |
| 6. Mark Trumbo (LAA) | 34 | 2.82 |
| 7. Alfonso Soriano (NYY) | 34 | 2.74 |
| 8. Adam Dunn (CWS) | 34 | 3.79 |
| 9. Adam Jones (BAL) | 33 | 2.58 |
| 10. Evan Longoria (TB) | 32 | 2.56 |
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/22/2013
This report shows you that amongst batters in the top ten in hits, nobody worked the count more than Mike Trout. Matt Carpenter and Dustin Pedroia both had very productive at bats that led to a hit. Napoli had productive at bats that ended up in a hit seeing 4.11 pitches.
2013 Hits Leaders with P/PA
| H | P/PA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Matt Carpenter (STL) | 199 | 4.12 |
| 2. Adrian Beltre (TEX) | 199 | 3.67 |
| 3. Miguel Cabrera (DET) | 193 | 3.71 |
| 4. Dustin Pedroia (BOS) | 193 | 4.05 |
| 5. Robinson Cano (NYY) | 190 | 3.63 |
| 6. Mike Trout (LAA) | 190 | 4.21 |
| 7. Manny Machado (BAL) | 189 | 3.53 |
| 8. Eric Hosmer (KC) | 188 | 3.77 |
| 9. Daniel Murphy (NYM) | 188 | 3.63 |
| 10. Adam Jones (BAL) | 186 | 3.54 |
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/22/2013
This report shows you that amongst batters in the top eleven in walks, nobody worked the count more than Dan Uggla and Andrew McCutcheon. Napoli averaged 5.84 pitches in his 73 walks.
Top 11 Leaders in Walks with P/PA
| BB | P/PA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Joey Votto (CIN) | 135 | 5.41 |
| 2. Shin-Soo Choo (CIN) | 112 | 5.63 |
| 3. Mike Trout (LAA) | 110 | 5.50 |
| 4. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) | 99 | 5.43 |
| 5. Carlos Santana (CLE) | 93 | 5.58 |
| 6. Miguel Cabrera (DET) | 90 | 5.34 |
| 7. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) | 82 | 5.60 |
| 8. Billy Butler (KC) | 79 | 5.06 |
| 9. Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 78 | 5.71 |
| 10. Nick Swisher (CLE) | 77 | 5.64 |
| 11. Dan Uggla (ATL) | 77 | 5.78 |
Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/22/2013
in Bill Chuck Files | tagged Mike Napoli
Bill Chuck Files | tagged Mike Napoli