The Black & Gold in a Sea of Red

The Cardinals and Pirates are meeting for the first time ever in a postseason game and everybody is talking about the momentum of the Pirates and desire for revenge for the postseason-returning Cardinals.

Let me get one key stat out of the way

We know as long as the Cardinals can get runners on base, they are going to be very dangerous.

• The NL batting average with runners on was .257 - The Pirates hit .248, the Cardinals hit .313.
  
• The NL batting average w/RISP was .251 - The Pirates hit .229 (only the Cubs were worse), the Cardinals hit .330 (all of MLB was worse).

So let's put that discussion aside and talk about who has the home field advantage.

The Black & Gold is the New Black

It was stunning to see and hear the Pirates fans in their dismantling of the Reds in the Wild Card play-in, but that surprise factor is gone and the Redbirds are going to be ready and the Cardinals fans are going to be inspired.

Only the Atlanta Braves (56-25) were more effective at home then the Cards in the NL this season.

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	Home	Road
1	STL	97	65	.599	---	54-27	43-38
2	PIT	94	68	.580	3.0	50-31	44-37

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 10/2/2013.

Note that despite the fact that the Pirates took the season series, 10-9, the Cardinals were 6-3 at home versus the Bucs. So, even though the Pirates were 7-3 against Cards in Pittsburgh's House of Thunder, three-of-five games are being played in St. Louis, Louie.

In Game 1 and if there is a Game 5, the match-up will be Adam Wainwright against A.J. Burnett.

The difference in the numbers is significant:

2013 NLDS Cards vs Pirates Games 1 & 5 Match-up

	G	IP	IP/G	ERA	WHIP	AVG	SLUG	OBP	HR	K	BB	K/BB	Grnd%
Adam Wainwright at Home	17	121.0	7.12	2.53	0.942	.217	.314	.254	7	114	20	5.70	50.2%
A. J. Burnett - Away	16	96.0	6.00	4.22	1.365	.257	.388	.329	6	96	35	2.74	57.3%

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/2/2013

  Burnett is clearly not as effective on the road as he is on his home turf, but Wainwright is very effective in the shadow of the Arch and that can't be minimized.

Pirates batters in St. Louis

Russell Martin did great against the Reds and all season long he hit the Cards well on their home field. The Cards will happily live with more of the same from Andrew McCutchen and be thrilled with Pedro Alvarez if he continues his flailing against the Redbirds in their home colors. Justin Morneau was 0-for-10 in St. Louis.

2013 Pirates @ St. Louis (min. 10 PA)

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	K	BB
Jose Tabata (PIT)	7	25	.391	.440	.696	1.136	23	9	4	0	1	4	1
Russell Martin (PIT)	7	31	.346	.452	.885	1.336	26	9	2	0	4	7	5
Clint Barmes (PIT)	7	23	.316	.409	.474	.883	19	6	0	0	1	5	3
Garrett Jones (PIT)	8	29	.308	.379	.654	1.033	26	8	3	0	2	6	3
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)	8	35	.276	.400	.414	.814	29	8	1	0	1	7	6
Starling Marte (PIT)	6	33	.269	.387	.423	.810	26	7	2	1	0	8	2
Tony Sanchez (PIT)	5	10	.250	.400	.250	.650	8	2	0	0	0	3	1
Pedro Alvarez (PIT)	9	41	.237	.268	.342	.610	38	9	1	0	1	13	2
Jordy Mercer (PIT)	5	14	.214	.214	.500	.714	14	3	1	0	1	4	0
Andrew Lambo (PIT)	5	11	.200	.273	.400	.673	10	2	2	0	0	3	1
Neil Walker (PIT)	7	32	.172	.219	.241	.460	29	5	2	0	0	7	2
Marlon Byrd (PIT)	4	14	.231	.286	.538	.824	13	3	1	0	1	3	1
Gaby Sanchez (PIT)	8	16	.083	.188	.083	.271	12	1	0	0	0	2	0
Justin Morneau (PIT)	3	11	.000	.091	.000	.091	10	0	0	0	0	4	1

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/3/2013

Cardinals batters in St. Louis versus the Pirates

Jon Jay LURVES hitting against the Bucs at home. Matt Carpenter is close to a .400 batter, and and Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran both are over .300 hitters. Carpenter had nine extra base hits against the Bucs at home and Beltran slugged three doubles and two homers. It doesn't appear as if the Cards will miss Allen Craig here.

2013 Pirates @ St. Louis (min. 10 PA)

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	K	BB
Jon Jay (STL)	9	34	.517	.576	.690	1.265	29	15	5	0	0	3	2
Matt Carpenter (STL)	9	44	.395	.477	.711	1.188	38	15	5	2	1	5	5
Matt Holliday (STL)	9	40	.333	.450	.424	.874	33	11	3	0	0	6	7
Carlos Beltran (STL)	9	37	.323	.405	.613	1.018	31	10	3	0	2	4	5
Pete Kozma (STL)	9	32	.250	.344	.286	.629	28	7	1	0	0	6	4
Allen Craig (STL)	6	29	.240	.345	.280	.625	25	6	1	0	0	4	3
Daniel Descalso (STL)	5	17	.214	.353	.286	.639	14	3	1	0	0	1	3
Shane Robinson (STL)	5	11	.200	.273	.300	.573	10	2	1	0	0	2	1
Matt Adams (STL)	5	16	.188	.188	.188	.375	16	3	0	0	0	3	0
Yadier Molina (STL)	7	28	.185	.214	.407	.622	27	5	3	0	1	4	1
David Freese (STL)	8	29	.160	.241	.320	.561	25	4	1	0	1	5	3

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/3/2013

It looks like home field advantage for the Cards in this series

The Cardinals are not the Reds, they are a confident team (even with all their rookies) that won't be as surprised or rattled by the fabulous Pirates fans.

This season, the Cardinals have played well against everyone, including the Pirates, at home and they have the great Wainwright and they have him, perhaps twice, at home.

That's why I'm taking the red over the black and gold.