First Pitch Strikes from Wainwright are No Surprise

Of the 33 Pirates batters Adam Wainwright faced last night, he threw 24 first-pitch strikes, 22 were in the strike zone, 15 were swung at, four were missed, five were fouled off, nine were called strikes, four were chased, and one went for a hit.

But first pitch strikes from Wainwright should be no surprise to anyone who has watched him pitch this season.

2013 Regular Season First Pitch Strike Leaders

	P	Strk#	Zone#	Strk%	Swng#	Miss#	ClStk#	Foul#	Chas#	InPl#	H	AVG
Adam Wainwright (STL)	956	617	548	64.5%	273	47	344	113	62	113	29	.269
Patrick Corbin (ARI)	862	604	537	70.1%	314	65	290	112	73	137	41	.308
Justin Verlander (DET)	928	603	471	65.0%	294	78	309	108	84	108	37	.352
Cliff Lee (PHI)	876	599	568	68.4%	278	66	321	110	58	102	34	.347
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)	910	591	533	64.9%	286	57	305	109	58	120	28	.248
CC Sabathia (NYY)	910	589	537	64.7%	246	54	343	85	47	107	39	.402
Jordan Zimmermann (WSH)	865	579	511	66.9%	261	47	318	100	47	114	32	.296
Cole Hamels (PHI)	908	576	516	63.4%	299	77	277	105	65	117	47	.431
R. A. Dickey (TOR)	947	575	559	60.7%	247	54	328	85	32	108	31	.292
Derek Holland (TEX)	894	568	520	63.5%	271	60	297	109	61	102	39	.406
Ervin Santana (KC)	862	567	504	65.8%	238	50	329	80	45	108	34	.318
Jeremy Guthrie (KC)	907	562	524	62.0%	210	26	352	86	46	98	27	.278
Mat Latos (CIN)	882	561	503	63.6%	255	73	306	73	58	109	40	.396
Jon Lester (BOS)	904	550	477	60.8%	252	46	298	100	56	106	35	.333
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA)	866	549	521	63.4%	250	53	299	86	44	111	35	.330
Chris Sale (CWS)	866	549	512	63.4%	198	43	351	69	40	85	28	.333
Jose Quintana (CWS)	834	548	507	65.7%	219	41	329	86	40	92	30	.333
Homer Bailey (CIN)	851	548	476	64.4%	235	56	313	79	67	100	30	.323
Jeff Samardzija (CHC)	918	547	477	59.6%	283	64	264	108	69	111	43	.398
James Shields (KC)	948	546	481	57.6%	268	54	278	113	59	101	26	.271
C. J. Wilson (LAA)	914	546	493	59.7%	182	53	364	52	45	77	28	.384
Lance Lynn (STL)	858	543	461	63.3%	258	61	285	109	58	88	29	.363
Max Scherzer (DET)	837	539	472	64.4%	236	72	303	86	51	78	23	.307
Bronson Arroyo (CIN)	825	539	496	65.3%	208	24	331	63	40	121	43	.368
Kris Medlen (ATL)	823	532	452	64.6%	262	75	270	79	62	108	25	.236

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/10/2013

2013 Postseason First Strike Leaders

This doe not include the one and done Ohioians

2013 Postseason First Pitch Strike Leaders

	P	Strk#	Zone#	Strk%	Swng#	Miss#	ClStk#	Foul#	Chas#	InPl#	H	AVG
Adam Wainwright (STL)	57	37	33	64.9%	23	7	14	8	7	8	2	.250
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)	50	31	29	62.0%	19	5	12	10	2	4	2	.500
Francisco Liriano (PIT)	50	29	23	58.0%	14	3	15	5	5	6	2	.333
Alex Cobb (TB)	51	29	24	56.9%	10	1	19	5	4	4	1	.250
Max Scherzer (DET)	37	25	22	67.6%	14	2	11	9	0	3	0	.000
Gerrit Cole (PIT)	40	24	18	60.0%	9	2	15	5	3	2	0	.000
Jon Lester (BOS)	29	21	17	72.4%	9	4	12	1	3	4	1	.250
David Price (TB)	31	21	18	67.7%	9	0	12	5	1	4	1	.333
Mike Minor (ATL)	26	19	14	73.1%	8	0	11	5	1	3	0	.000
Freddy Garcia (ATL)	26	18	16	69.2%	8	3	10	2	1	3	1	.333
John Lackey (BOS)	26	17	15	65.4%	13	3	4	5	2	5	2	.400
Clay Buchholz (BOS)	27	17	14	63.0%	7	1	10	4	2	2	0	.000
Sonny Gray (OAK)	29	16	17	55.2%	4	0	12	3	1	1	0	.000
Michael Wacha (STL)	25	16	15	64.0%	7	1	9	3	1	3	0	.000
Matt Moore (TB)	32	16	13	50.0%	9	3	7	5	4	1	0	.000
Dan Straily (OAK)	22	16	14	72.7%	8	4	8	2	3	2	0	.000
Jake Peavy (BOS)	20	15	12	75.0%	4	2	11	1	1	1	0	.000
Bartolo Colon (OAK)	26	15	12	57.7%	7	0	8	3	3	4	2	.500
Anibal Sanchez (DET)	24	15	14	62.5%	9	4	6	5	2	0	0	-
Joe Kelly (STL)	24	14	11	58.3%	7	1	7	1	2	5	1	.250
Jarrod Parker (OAK)	20	14	14	70.0%	7	1	7	4	0	2	0	.000
Kris Medlen (ATL)	23	13	9	56.5%	8	2	5	1	2	5	2	.500
Zack Greinke (LAD)	22	12	11	54.5%	6	0	6	4	1	2	0	.000
Justin Verlander (DET)	26	12	9	46.2%	8	3	4	3	2	2	0	.000
Doug Fister (DET)	25	10	13	40.0%	3	0	7	3	0	0	0	-

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/10/2013

Tonight's ALDS Matchup

2013 ALD Game 5 Probable Starters First Pitches

	P	Strk#	Zone#	Strk%	Swng#	Miss#	ClStk#	Foul#	Chas#	InPl#	H	AVG
Justin Verlander (Reg & Post)	954	615	480	64.5%	302	81	313	111	86	110	37	.346
Sonny Gray (Reg & Post)	290	172	159	59.3%	57	10	115	22	8	25	8	.320

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/10/2013

Wainwright's Curveball Key to Bucs-Cards Game 5

The Pirates and Cardinals face off Wednesday night for the 24th and final time during the 2013 season, with a trip to the National League Championship Series on the line. The Dodgers' opponent in the fight for NL supremacy may be decided by whether the Bucs can accomplish something they failed to do in NLDS Game 1: Solve Adam Wainwright's curveball. Pittsburgh has struggled all year along against the curve, though a pair of trade pickups offer hope as the club tries to win its first postseason matchup since Willie Stargell and Dave Parker raked for the 1979 World Series champs.

Pirates batters are slugging a collective .268 against curveballs this season, which is 55 points below the MLB average (.323) and bests only the historically punchless Miami Marlins among all teams. In particular, Pedro Alvarez (.123 slugging percentage versus curveballs), Starling Marte (.237) and Russell Martin (.267) are flailing when pitchers snap off a curve.

For Alvarez, merely making contact against a curve is a coin flip. He's swinging and missing 49.1 percent of the time versus curveballs in 2013, the second-highest clip among qualified hitters (Dan Uggla whiffed 49.4 percent). Pitchers are well aware of his weakness, feeding him the seventh-highest rate of curveballs seen (12.6 percent) among MLB hitters. Unless pitchers hang a curve over the middle of the plate, Pedro's whiffing:

Alvarez's contact rate by pitch location versus curveballs, 2013

Marte, meanwhile, can't resist the urge to hack at curveballs thrown in the dirt. He's chasing curves at the fifth-highest rate (40.2 percent) in the National League. Like Alvarez, Marte's trouble with the curve is well-known: He has seen curveballs 11.8 percent of the time this season, the NL's eighth-highest rate. Marte expands his strike zone to go after low-and-away breakers:

Marte's swing rate by pitch location versus curveballs, 2013

Martin doesn't see as many curves as Alvarez or Marte (9.1 percent of total pitches), and he doesn't share their contact or plate discipline woes against the pitch. It's just that nothing happens when he puts curveballs in play. Martin is hitting a ground ball 62.5 percent of the time versus curves, the ninth-highest rate in the NL. Considering that Martin is a catcher with over 1,000 big leagues games to his name and his batting average on grounders (.228) is way below the big league average (.254), that's not a happy development.

Not all Bucs are scuffling against curveballs, however. Andrew McCutchen (.371 slugging percentage versus curves) and Neil Walker (.378) hold their own, while midseason trade acquisitions Marlon Byrd (.452) and Justin Morneau (.507) crush the pitch.

Wainwright, who throws the fourth-highest percentage of curveballs (27.3 percent) among starting pitchers and has limited hitters to a .230 slugging percentage (11th-best), schooled the Pirates with his signature offering in Game 1. He racked up six swinging strikeouts with his curveball, getting Alvarez, Byrd (twice), Marte, Martin and Morneau to chase out of the strike zone. Bucs batters went 0-for-11 against Wainwright's curve and didn't hit a single one out of the infield. If the Pirates are going to play for the pennant, that has to change in their Game 5 rematch.

The Black & Gold in a Sea of Red

The Cardinals and Pirates are meeting for the first time ever in a postseason game and everybody is talking about the momentum of the Pirates and desire for revenge for the postseason-returning Cardinals.

Let me get one key stat out of the way

We know as long as the Cardinals can get runners on base, they are going to be very dangerous.

• The NL batting average with runners on was .257 - The Pirates hit .248, the Cardinals hit .313.
  
• The NL batting average w/RISP was .251 - The Pirates hit .229 (only the Cubs were worse), the Cardinals hit .330 (all of MLB was worse).

So let's put that discussion aside and talk about who has the home field advantage.

The Black & Gold is the New Black

It was stunning to see and hear the Pirates fans in their dismantling of the Reds in the Wild Card play-in, but that surprise factor is gone and the Redbirds are going to be ready and the Cardinals fans are going to be inspired.

Only the Atlanta Braves (56-25) were more effective at home then the Cards in the NL this season.

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	Home	Road
1	STL	97	65	.599	---	54-27	43-38
2	PIT	94	68	.580	3.0	50-31	44-37

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 10/2/2013.

Note that despite the fact that the Pirates took the season series, 10-9, the Cardinals were 6-3 at home versus the Bucs. So, even though the Pirates were 7-3 against Cards in Pittsburgh's House of Thunder, three-of-five games are being played in St. Louis, Louie.

In Game 1 and if there is a Game 5, the match-up will be Adam Wainwright against A.J. Burnett.

The difference in the numbers is significant:

2013 NLDS Cards vs Pirates Games 1 & 5 Match-up

	G	IP	IP/G	ERA	WHIP	AVG	SLUG	OBP	HR	K	BB	K/BB	Grnd%
Adam Wainwright at Home	17	121.0	7.12	2.53	0.942	.217	.314	.254	7	114	20	5.70	50.2%
A. J. Burnett - Away	16	96.0	6.00	4.22	1.365	.257	.388	.329	6	96	35	2.74	57.3%

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/2/2013

  Burnett is clearly not as effective on the road as he is on his home turf, but Wainwright is very effective in the shadow of the Arch and that can't be minimized.

Pirates batters in St. Louis

Russell Martin did great against the Reds and all season long he hit the Cards well on their home field. The Cards will happily live with more of the same from Andrew McCutchen and be thrilled with Pedro Alvarez if he continues his flailing against the Redbirds in their home colors. Justin Morneau was 0-for-10 in St. Louis.

2013 Pirates @ St. Louis (min. 10 PA)

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	K	BB
Jose Tabata (PIT)	7	25	.391	.440	.696	1.136	23	9	4	0	1	4	1
Russell Martin (PIT)	7	31	.346	.452	.885	1.336	26	9	2	0	4	7	5
Clint Barmes (PIT)	7	23	.316	.409	.474	.883	19	6	0	0	1	5	3
Garrett Jones (PIT)	8	29	.308	.379	.654	1.033	26	8	3	0	2	6	3
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)	8	35	.276	.400	.414	.814	29	8	1	0	1	7	6
Starling Marte (PIT)	6	33	.269	.387	.423	.810	26	7	2	1	0	8	2
Tony Sanchez (PIT)	5	10	.250	.400	.250	.650	8	2	0	0	0	3	1
Pedro Alvarez (PIT)	9	41	.237	.268	.342	.610	38	9	1	0	1	13	2
Jordy Mercer (PIT)	5	14	.214	.214	.500	.714	14	3	1	0	1	4	0
Andrew Lambo (PIT)	5	11	.200	.273	.400	.673	10	2	2	0	0	3	1
Neil Walker (PIT)	7	32	.172	.219	.241	.460	29	5	2	0	0	7	2
Marlon Byrd (PIT)	4	14	.231	.286	.538	.824	13	3	1	0	1	3	1
Gaby Sanchez (PIT)	8	16	.083	.188	.083	.271	12	1	0	0	0	2	0
Justin Morneau (PIT)	3	11	.000	.091	.000	.091	10	0	0	0	0	4	1

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/3/2013

Cardinals batters in St. Louis versus the Pirates

Jon Jay LURVES hitting against the Bucs at home. Matt Carpenter is close to a .400 batter, and and Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran both are over .300 hitters. Carpenter had nine extra base hits against the Bucs at home and Beltran slugged three doubles and two homers. It doesn't appear as if the Cards will miss Allen Craig here.

2013 Pirates @ St. Louis (min. 10 PA)

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	K	BB
Jon Jay (STL)	9	34	.517	.576	.690	1.265	29	15	5	0	0	3	2
Matt Carpenter (STL)	9	44	.395	.477	.711	1.188	38	15	5	2	1	5	5
Matt Holliday (STL)	9	40	.333	.450	.424	.874	33	11	3	0	0	6	7
Carlos Beltran (STL)	9	37	.323	.405	.613	1.018	31	10	3	0	2	4	5
Pete Kozma (STL)	9	32	.250	.344	.286	.629	28	7	1	0	0	6	4
Allen Craig (STL)	6	29	.240	.345	.280	.625	25	6	1	0	0	4	3
Daniel Descalso (STL)	5	17	.214	.353	.286	.639	14	3	1	0	0	1	3
Shane Robinson (STL)	5	11	.200	.273	.300	.573	10	2	1	0	0	2	1
Matt Adams (STL)	5	16	.188	.188	.188	.375	16	3	0	0	0	3	0
Yadier Molina (STL)	7	28	.185	.214	.407	.622	27	5	3	0	1	4	1
David Freese (STL)	8	29	.160	.241	.320	.561	25	4	1	0	1	5	3

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/3/2013

It looks like home field advantage for the Cards in this series

The Cardinals are not the Reds, they are a confident team (even with all their rookies) that won't be as surprised or rattled by the fabulous Pirates fans.

This season, the Cardinals have played well against everyone, including the Pirates, at home and they have the great Wainwright and they have him, perhaps twice, at home.

That's why I'm taking the red over the black and gold.