Postseason Batting - It's Hanley and Everyone Else

I've been watching these games and seeing the success of the Red Sox and Dodgers (Pirates as well) bats and the futility of the Tigers, Rays, Cards, and A's and wanted to see how they were succeeding and struggling even beyond the averages.

Let's take a deep dive into the batting prowess of each team

Who's Fooling Who? (Batters as of October 7, 2013)

	P	PA	Swng%	Miss%	Strk%	InPl%	Foul%	Zone%	Chas%	ClStk%	AVG	BABIP
Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	446	120	51.3%	24.0%	65.7%	34.9%	41.0%	46.0%	31.5%	29.5%	.333	.419
Tampa Bay Rays (TB)	405	109	48.6%	30.5%	64.9%	35.0%	34.5%	47.7%	31.6%	31.7%	.208	.258
Oakland Athletics (OAK)	309	68	48.5%	36.7%	63.1%	22.0%	41.3%	43.4%	32.0%	28.3%	.177	.313
Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT)	551	149	47.7%	23.6%	62.6%	41.8%	34.6%	44.3%	29.3%	28.5%	.277	.294
Atlanta Braves (ATL)	468	109	47.2%	24.4%	62.4%	30.3%	45.2%	46.6%	31.2%	28.7%	.221	.313
Detroit Tigers (DET)	266	68	46.6%	19.4%	62.4%	39.5%	41.1%	44.7%	31.3%	29.6%	.219	.292
Boston Red Sox (BOS)	294	80	46.6%	19.7%	63.3%	42.3%	38.0%	49.7%	23.0%	31.2%	.352	.411
St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	421	109	43.7%	17.9%	62.2%	44.0%	38.0%	47.7%	23.6%	32.9%	.219	.234

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/7/2013

What stands out:

• The Dodgers are not afraid to swing against the Braves pitching.
• The Dodgers and Red Sox have an unsustainable batting average for balls in play.
• Look how few pitches the Braves are putting play and then you see the A's are putting way fewer in play. Both teams have a .313 BABIP.
• The A's have been missing a lot of Tigers pitches and really have to be thrilled with a 1-1 tie in the series.
• The Tigers are really struggling against the A's pitching and really have to be thrilled with a 1-1 tie in the series.
• The Red Sox are showing great discipline at the plate not doing a lot of swing and missing and not chasing a lot of pitches out of the zone. They are confident enough to take called strikes and work the count. They are not being fooled by Tampa Bay pitching.
• In contrast, the Cardinals are not swinging at a lot of pitches, they missing very few, they're not chasing a lot of pitches, and they are not hitting in good luck, in part because we've seen they are not taking good swings at pitches.

Prince Fielder needs to take a called strike

Here's some thoughts:
Prince Fielder needs to chill. Josh Donaldson is creating new wind currents with his swings-and-misses. Delmon Young is swinging at almost everything. Hanley Ramirez is a beast. Marlon Byrd loves being a Buc. Yasiel Puig of his own, rakes. If Jacoby Ellsbury continues the way he's been playing, Scott Boras will go deaf from all the ka-chings he keeps hearing for the soon-to-be free agent.
Here's why:

Top 20 Swingers as of October 7, 2013

	P	PA	Swng%	Miss%	Strk%	InPl%	Foul%	Zone%	Chas%	ClStk%	AVG	BABIP
Delmon Young (TB)	34	11	70.6%	41.7%	76.5%	37.5%	20.8%	41.2%	60.0%	20.0%	.333	.250
Juan Uribe (LAD)	46	13	65.2%	30.0%	71.7%	33.3%	36.7%	50.0%	43.5%	18.8%	.333	.375
Stephen Vogt (OAK)	36	7	63.9%	21.7%	77.8%	17.4%	60.9%	38.9%	54.5%	38.5%	.143	.250
Prince Fielder (DET)	26	8	61.5%	6.3%	61.5%	50.0%	43.8%	46.2%	28.6%	0.0%	.125	.125
Jose Iglesias (DET)	31	7	61.3%	15.8%	74.2%	31.6%	52.6%	41.9%	55.6%	33.3%	.167	.200
Hanley Ramirez (LAD)	57	14	59.6%	11.8%	66.7%	35.3%	52.9%	42.1%	42.4%	17.4%	.538	.545
Evan Gattis (ATL)	57	12	59.6%	20.6%	68.4%	23.5%	55.9%	40.4%	44.1%	21.7%	.500	.625
Yoenis Cespedes (OAK)	34	8	58.8%	20.0%	67.6%	30.0%	50.0%	47.1%	38.9%	21.4%	.500	.600
Torii Hunter (DET)	24	8	58.3%	28.6%	66.7%	28.6%	42.9%	41.7%	50.0%	20.0%	.143	.250
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)	28	9	57.1%	18.8%	82.1%	43.8%	37.5%	67.9%	33.3%	58.3%	.556	.714
Justin Morneau (PIT)	60	18	56.7%	23.5%	73.3%	44.1%	32.4%	53.3%	32.1%	38.5%	.294	.333
Freddie Freeman (ATL)	55	13	56.4%	25.8%	67.3%	29.0%	45.2%	54.5%	28.0%	25.0%	.333	.444
Marlon Byrd (PIT)	51	16	54.9%	32.1%	62.7%	42.9%	25.0%	31.4%	40.0%	17.4%	.333	.364
Chris Johnson (ATL)	44	12	54.5%	37.5%	75.0%	29.2%	33.3%	54.5%	40.0%	45.0%	.333	.571
Starling Marte (PIT)	76	18	53.9%	24.4%	63.2%	31.7%	43.9%	51.3%	32.4%	20.0%	.188	.167
Carl Crawford (LAD)	52	15	53.8%	25.0%	73.1%	32.1%	42.9%	51.9%	36.0%	41.7%	.286	.375
Josh Reddick (OAK)	41	8	53.7%	27.3%	58.5%	18.2%	54.5%	41.5%	25.0%	10.5%	.143	.250
Yasiel Puig (LAD)	43	14	53.5%	39.1%	67.4%	39.1%	21.7%	34.9%	32.1%	30.0%	.462	.667
Josh Donaldson (OAK)	30	8	53.3%	56.3%	70.0%	25.0%	18.8%	50.0%	40.0%	35.7%	.125	.250
Stephen Drew (BOS)	32	9	53.1%	23.5%	65.6%	41.2%	35.3%	46.9%	29.4%	26.7%	.222	.286

Powered by TruMedia. Created on 10/7/2013

The Hanley Ramirez Report

Jacoby Ellsbury has had a great couple of games, but this is Hanley's world, we just live on it.

.300 Hitters (10/7/2013)

	G	PA	AB	H	XBH	BB	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	BABIP	K
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)	2	9	9	5	1	0	.556	.556	.667	1.222	.714	2
Hanley Ramirez (LAD)	3	14	13	7	6	1	.538	.571	1.231	1.802	.545	1
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)	4	18	13	7	1	5	.538	.667	.615	1.282	.583	1
Yoenis Cespedes (OAK)	2	8	8	4	2	0	.500	.500	1.125	1.625	.600	2
Shane Victorino (BOS)	2	9	8	4	0	0	.500	.556	.500	1.056	.571	1
Evan Gattis (ATL)	3	12	10	5	0	2	.500	.583	.500	1.083	.625	2
A. J. Ellis (LAD)	3	12	8	4	2	2	.500	.636	.750	1.386	.667	2
Yasiel Puig (LAD)	3	14	13	6	0	0	.462	.500	.462	.962	.667	4
Desmond Jennings (TB)	3	11	10	4	1	1	.400	.455	.500	.955	.500	2
Russell Martin (PIT)	4	16	13	5	2	1	.385	.375	.846	1.221	.333	4
Dustin Pedroia (BOS)	2	9	8	3	1	0	.375	.333	.500	.833	.429	2
David Ortiz (BOS)	2	9	8	3	3	1	.375	.444	1.250	1.694	.200	1
Yadier Molina (STL)	3	12	11	4	2	1	.364	.417	.727	1.144	.333	1
Matt Adams (STL)	3	13	11	4	1	1	.364	.462	.455	.916	.400	1
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD)	3	14	14	5	1	0	.357	.357	.571	.929	.444	4
Omar Infante (DET)	2	7	6	2	0	1	.333	.429	.333	.762	.500	2
Marlon Byrd (PIT)	4	16	15	5	3	1	.333	.375	.667	1.042	.364	3
Juan Uribe (LAD)	3	13	12	4	1	0	.333	.333	.583	.917	.375	3
James Loney (TB)	3	11	9	3	1	1	.333	.455	.444	.899	.429	2
Freddie Freeman (ATL)	3	13	12	4	1	1	.333	.385	.417	.801	.444	3
Delmon Young (TB)	3	11	9	3	1	1	.333	.364	.667	1.030	.250	1
Chris Johnson (ATL)	3	12	12	4	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	.571	5
Carlos Beltran (STL)	3	13	12	4	3	1	.333	.385	.917	1.301	.222	1
Alex Avila (DET)	2	7	6	2	0	1	.333	.429	.333	.762	.500	2
Pedro Alvarez (PIT)	4	16	13	4	3	2	.308	.375	.846	1.221	.250	4

Powered by TruMedia. Created on 10/7/2013

Hanley Killing Soft Stuff, Chasing the Flying Dutchman

According to the man himself, 2013 has been the best year of Hanley Ramirez's career. And, while the Dodgers shortstop has played in just 81 games due to thumb, hamstring and back ailments, it's easy to see why. The Marlins refugee is going to the playoffs for the first time ever, as L.A. clinched the National League West last night behind Ramirez's 19th and 20th home runs of the season. His park-and-league adjusted on-base-plus slugging percentage is a career-best 94 percent above average (194 OPS+). That's tops among batters taking at least 300 trips to the plate this year and is the second-best OPS+ ever for a shortstop with at least 300 plate appearances in a season. Who's first? Some dude named Honus.

Highest single-season OPS+ for shortstops, min. 300 PA

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

How is Hanley, who rarely made an impact at the plate the previous two seasons (101 OPS+ in 2011-12), hitting like The Flying Dutchman? By taking to the air, of course. Ramirez is lofting far more "soft" pitches (curveballs, sliders and changeups) and depositing them deep into the left field at Chavez Ravine.

Last year, Ramirez hit a ground ball about half of the time that he put a curve, slider or changeup into play, above the 46% major league average. All of those weak choppers led to a .363 slugging percentage versus breaking and off-speed stuff, slightly below the .372 MLB average.

Ramirez's slugging percentage vs. soft pitches, 2012

This year, though? Ramirez is hitting grounders just 34% of the time against soft pitches. He's making those extra fly balls and line drives count, too.

Ramirez's slugging percentage vs. soft pitches, 2013

Ramirez is slugging .711 against soft stuff, trailing only home run king Chris Davis (.725) among big league hitters seeing at least 450 breaking and off-speed pitches in 2013. Compared to Hanley, even Rookie of the Year contender and break-dance enthusiast Yasiel Puig (.576) looks pedestrian. Enjoy the pool party, Hanley. When you're clubbing pitches like Honus Wagner, you've earned a few post-game cannonballs.

Dodgers Turnaround Part 2: Pitching

The other day, I kicked off this mini-series about the Dodgers by diving into the offense with regards to what has made them one of the best teams in the game this season.

Today, we move onto pitching.

The first part of the LA pitching season was ugly.

The starters were so-so

One would think that a Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke fronted rotation shouldn't have any problems performing well. And to a point, the starting rotation has not been overly bad. Kershaw will find himself in the middle of the Cy Young Award voting again this season. Greinke got off to a slow start, but also missed time with a broken collarbone thanks to Carlos Quentin.

The contribution that helped the most in the rotation at the beginning of the season, was that of Hyun-jin Ryu. 

Through the 21st of June, the Korean import's ERA of 2.96 trailed only Kershaw among Dodger starters. With a 21.2% K-rate and K/BB of 2.92, Ryu was making the Dodgers front office look brilliant for investing $61-plus million (Posting fee, $25+ million. Contract, $36 million) in the 26 year old left hander.

The starting rotation was around the middle of the pack in the NL in most categories.

But the bullpen, well...

Through June 21st, the bullpen's ERA was 13th in the National League. It's WHIP was 14th. It's OPS against was 13th. Slugging against, 12th. Do you catch my drift?

Of course, when any bullpen is doing terrible, all eyes look to the closer.

And as the closer, Brandon League was all kinds of not good during the first three months of the season.

League was 14/18 in save chances through late June, and got tuned up by opposing offenses who posted a slash line of .300/.352/.455 against him. Or roughly, Allen Craig-like. League's unsightly 5.14 ERA and 1.464 WHIP eventually got him demoted from the closer role. But as a team, the relief pitching blew 15 save opportunities through June 21st. It's easy to point and laugh at League's non-production, but the late innings were a mess for the Dodgers, and it nearly cost manager Don Mattingly his job.

But then came Kenley Jansen.

Yup, Kenley Jansen. Just your typical, run-of-the-mill, completely dominant closer. I would list the stats for Jansen, but I'd rather just stare at the stat table embedded below with you. We can clean each other's drool off of the table.

Jansen by the numbers

	AVG	SLUG	OBP	HR	WHIP	K%	BB%	ERA
Kenley Jansen	.181	.278	.228	5	0.817	37.3%	4.6%	1.98

Powered by TruMedia. Created on 8/23/2013

   

The Curacao native has been nearly untouchable for the Dodgers throughout July and August, allowing only four earned runs and blowing one save in that time span. 

He may not have Mariano Rivera's cutter, But when you are using it 83.7% of the time, and the results above are what you are getting, it must be something special. 

Along with Jansen anchoring the back end of the bullpen, the rest of the Dodgers relievers have stepped in line to make sure that he gets the ball in the ninth inning. Well, except for League, his ERA since the team became ridiculous good is 4.96. Thanks for nothing, Brandon.

Ronald Belisario has appeared in 25 games since June 21st. His ERA over that span is 0.90. His WHIP is 1.000. Chris Withrow has appeared in 11 games and has an ERA of 1.59 with a WHIP of 0.765. J.P. Howell has an ERA of 0.52 and a WHIP of 0.981. In 24 games, Paco Rodriguez has an ERA of 0.47 and a WHIP of 0.569.

That's five relievers if you include Jansen who have a sub-2.00 ERA and WHIP's at 1.000 or below.

The game is over after four

As a unit the relief corp since June 22nd ranks first in the NL in ERA (2.67), first in WHIP (1.041), third in OPS against (.663) and their K/BB of 3.61 is pacing the NL as well. In theory, that means that every game where the Dodgers have a lead after four innings, should be nearly automatic, and starters could be used less.

But that would mean a lot less Kershaw and his 7-2 record. What's that? You think pitchers wins are silly too? How about an ERA of 1.40, a WHIP of 0.649 and a K-Rate of 25.5% to go along with his 7-2 record over his 10 starts since June 21st? I may have said it before, but just in case I haven't, Clayton Kershaw is good. Like, really really good. I could probably write about him everyday. 

And his number two, Zack Greinke, has been a legitimate number one. He's 8-1 over his last 11 starts to go along with a 2.25 ERA and 1.092 WHIP. A big money offseason signing that worked. I wish my team had one of those. 

The Dodgers are on a run where they are 42-9 since June 21st. 42-9! The Tampa Bay Rays were recently called the "hottest team in baseball." Their record since June 21st is 31-16. The Atlanta Braves just rattled off 14 consecutive wins. Their record? 32-16. 

No team can touch what the Dodgers have been doing for the last eight weeks.

Nobody.