Two Games of LCS Pitching

The pitching in these League Championship Series has been remarkable and worth taking a deeper look.

2013 LCS pitching through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. St. Louis Cardinals	22.0	85	4.09	76	14	3	0	7	24	.184	.269	.026	0.82	0.955
2. Los Angeles Dodgers	20.1	74	3.89	67	9	3	0	6	18	.134	.180	.000	1.33	0.738
3. Detroit Tigers	17.0	69	4.43	59	8	3	1	9	32	.136	.269	.017	2.65	1.000
4. Boston Red Sox	18.0	78	3.65	70	17	8	2	5	13	.243	.273	.072	3.00	1.222

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Two broad strokes:

• The Dodgers are one unlucky team, but the Cardinals are also pitching brilliantly.
• The most significant number that might explain why Boston is tied in their LCS can be seen as they continue to do what they do best: work the pitcher. Their 4.43 pitches per plate appearance is significantly greater than any of the other three teams.

Let's go deeper by looking at the starting pitching

Clearly the Cardinals and Dodgers starters have been outstanding, but the Tigers starters have been even better. As we progress in this postseason, it would be fair to say that the Red Sox starters are the weakest of the four teams and the team's greatest weakness.

2013 LCS Starting pitching through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. Detroit Tigers	13.0	50	4.48	41	2	1	0	8	25	.049	.125	.000	0.69	0.769
2. Los Angeles Dodgers	14.0	48	3.67	45	6	3	0	2	15	.133	.194	.000	1.29	0.571
3. St. Louis Cardinals	12.1	53	3.91	49	11	2	0	3	13	.224	.306	.041	1.42	1.105
4. Boston Red Sox	12.0	53	3.60	49	14	6	2	1	10	.286	.324	.083	4.50	1.250

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2013 LCS Starters through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. Anibal Sanchez (DET)	6.0	25	4.64	19	0	0	0	6	12	.000	.000	.000	0.00	1.000
2. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)	6.0	20	3.60	18	2	2	0	1	5	.111	.143	.000	0.00	0.500
3. Michael Wacha (STL)	6.1	26	4.31	25	5	1	0	1	8	.200	.294	.080	0.00	0.900
4. Max Scherzer (DET)	7.0	25	4.32	22	2	1	0	2	13	.091	.222	.000	1.29	0.571
5. Jon Lester (BOS)	6.0	27	4.04	24	6	1	0	1	4	.250	.300	.125	1.42	1.105
6. Zack Greinke (LAD)	8.0	28	3.71	27	4	1	0	1	10	.148	.235	.000	2.25	0.625
7. Joe Kelly (STL)	6.0	27	3.52	24	6	1	0	2	5	.250	.316	.000	3.00	1.333
8. Clay Buchholz (BOS)	5.1	26	3.15	25	8	5	2	0	6	.320	.353	.042	7.94	1.412

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Let's go even deeper by looking at the bullpens

Tigers fans instead of bemoaning the fact that you are leaving Boston tied 1-1, you need to feel really happy you got out of Dodge with a win. The Red Sox have lit up the Detroit bullpen, barely escaping with a win in Game 1 and you saw what happened in Game 2.

2013 LCS Bullpen pitching through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. Boston Red Sox	6.0	25	3.76	21	3	2	0	4	3	.143	.167	.048	0.00	1.167
2. St. Louis Cardinals	9.1	32	4.41	27	3	1	0	4	11	.111	.188	.000	0.00	0.750
3. Los Angeles Dodgers	6.0	26	4.31	22	3	0	0	4	3	.136	.158	.000	1.42	1.105
4. Detroit Tigers	4.0	19	4.32	18	6	2	1	1	7	.333	.500	.056	9.00	1.750

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It's not just one Tigers reliever, it's all of them

You have to wonder if Jim Leyland is going to have the phone removed from the dugout

2013 LCS Tigers relief pitching through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. Al Alburquerque	1.1	5	4.00	5	1	0	0	0	3	.200	.500	.000	6.75	0.750
2. Joaquin Benoit	1.1	6	5.00	6	2	1	1	0	2	.333	.333	.000	6.75	1.500
3. Jose Veras	1.0	4	2.50	4	1	1	0	0	2	.250	.500	.000	9.00	1.000
4. Drew Smyly	0.1	2	6.50	1	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.000	.000	27.00	3.000
5. Rick Porcello	0.0	2	4.50	2	2	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	.500	-	-

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Sanchez Shouldn't Count on Sox Chasing Soft Stuff

Anibal Sanchez might not have the fastball zip or name recognition of fellow Tigers starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but he has arguably been manager Jim Leyland's best option in 2013. The 29-year-old Venezuelan has a better park-and-league adjusted ERA (163 ERA+) than 2011 Cy Young Award winner Verlander (121 ERA+) or the possibly soon-to-be Cy Scherzer (145 ERA+).

Sanchez has emerged as an ace due in large part to the quality of his "soft" stuff -- his slider, changeup and curveball. He throws breaking and off-speed pitches nearly as often (48.4%) as his fastball, and he has enticed hitters into chasing his soft stuff off the plate at one of the highest clips among starting pitchers in the Junior Circuit. With a 36.1 percent chase rate on breaking and off-speed pitches, Sanchez trails just Mark Buehrle, Ryan Dempster and Ervin Santana in 2013.

Highest chase rate on soft pitches, 2013

By inducing so many hacks on soft pitches thrown out of the zone, Sanchez has limited hard contact. His .298 opponent slugging percentage on sliders, curves and changeups is sixth-lowest in the AL, behind Chris Sale (.294), Scherzer (.286), C.J. Wilson (.284), Yu Darvish (.243) and Justin Masterson (.181).

Sanchez's winning strategy -- expand the zone with breaking and off-speed stuff -- might not play as well against the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 the ALCS. Collectively, Boston hitters have chased the fourth-lowest percentage of breaking and off-speed pitches in the majors.

Lowest team chase rate on soft pitches

David Ortiz has shown an especially sharp eye against soft pitches, chasing out of the zone only 19 percent of the time this season. Mike Napoli (23.1 percent), Stephen Drew (26 percent), Jonny Gomes (27.8 percent) and Dustin Pedroia (28.4 percent) also resist the urge to go fishing and sliders, curves and changeups.

The Sox do a good deal of damage against soft pitches -- they're slugging .386, fourth-highest in the bigs -- but the real value in their patient approach may be how it puts them in favorable counts and allows them to sit on fastballs. Boston is slugging an MLB-best .484 versus fastballs this season, with Ortiz (.633) and Napoli (.569) leading the way. If Sox hitters lay off Sanchez's soft stuff, he may be forced to challenge Boston with more fastballs. That could lead to some shiny new dents on the Green Monster.

Getting ahead on the Count is the Key to LCS

Here is a very quick and simplistic key to success in the two League Championship Series: Get ahead on the count.

Take a look at the 2013 Postseason numbers for the final four

Here's the overall batting numbers to date

Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	156	.333	.390	.572	.962	22.4%	7.7%	5.1%	.218
2. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	160	.286	.390	.414	.803	20.6%	12.5%	1.5%	.191
3. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	178	.235	.299	.321	.620	21.3%	7.3%	1.9%	.117
4. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	179	.209	.294	.354	.648	17.3%	9.5%	3.8%	.188

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Now take a look at these teams numbers in hitter's counts:

Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams on Hitter's Counts

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	24	.611	.667	.722	1.389	0.0%	20.8%	0.0%	.474
2. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	40	.423	.615	.808	1.423	0.0%	30.0%	7.7%	.519
3. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	41	.333	.500	.467	.967	0.0%	22.0%	3.3%	.161
4. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	43	.278	.395	.500	.895	0.0%	16.3%	5.6%	.306

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Now, check out the difference when these batters are facing pitcher's counts.

Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams on Pitcher's Counts

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	79	.269	.269	.526	.795	41.8%	0.0%	6.4%	.114
2. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	86	.205	.224	.337	.561	31.4%	0.0%	3.6%	.131
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	66	.203	.212	.266	.478	40.9%	0.0%	0.0%	.092
4. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	81	.150	.160	.250	.410	42.0%	0.0%	2.5%	.100

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Here's the other side - Pitchers Numbers for the LCS

Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	172	.201	.269	.312	.581	23.3%	8.1%	2.6%	.178
2. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	183	.217	.280	.380	.660	31.1%	7.7%	3.0%	.190
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	143	.225	.294	.372	.666	23.1%	7.7%	3.1%	.209
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	147	.214	.290	.275	.564	28.6%	9.5%	0.8%	.159

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Here's how the pitchers fare when they are behind on the count.

Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams: Hitters Counts

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	39	.367	.487	.600	1.087	0.0%	20.5%	6.7%	.323
2. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	37	.286	.432	.536	.968	0.0%	21.6%	3.6%	.345
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	29	.440	.517	.760	1.277	0.0%	13.8%	4.0%	.400
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	27	.182	.333	.227	.561	0.0%	18.5%	0.0%	.273

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

Now, take a look at how effective these pitchers are when they are ahead on the count.

Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams: Hitters Counts

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	K%	BB%	HR%	WHAV
1. Detroit Tigers (DET)	5	100	.163	.172	.306	.478	49.0%	0.0%	3.1%	.121
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	4	75	.203	.203	.270	.473	45.3%	0.0%	1.4%	.122
3. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	5	70	.100	.100	.143	.243	47.1%	0.0%	1.4%	.086
4. Boston Red Sox (BOS)	4	70	.132	.143	.221	.363	42.9%	0.0%	2.9%	.132

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/11/2013

These are the four best teams, but only two will move on

These numbers show a key as to who will thrive and who won't survive. It's not the only key to these two LCS, but it is one you can count on and one you can track very easily.