Sanchez Shouldn't Count on Sox Chasing Soft Stuff

Anibal Sanchez might not have the fastball zip or name recognition of fellow Tigers starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but he has arguably been manager Jim Leyland's best option in 2013. The 29-year-old Venezuelan has a better park-and-league adjusted ERA (163 ERA+) than 2011 Cy Young Award winner Verlander (121 ERA+) or the possibly soon-to-be Cy Scherzer (145 ERA+).

Sanchez has emerged as an ace due in large part to the quality of his "soft" stuff -- his slider, changeup and curveball. He throws breaking and off-speed pitches nearly as often (48.4%) as his fastball, and he has enticed hitters into chasing his soft stuff off the plate at one of the highest clips among starting pitchers in the Junior Circuit. With a 36.1 percent chase rate on breaking and off-speed pitches, Sanchez trails just Mark Buehrle, Ryan Dempster and Ervin Santana in 2013.

Highest chase rate on soft pitches, 2013

By inducing so many hacks on soft pitches thrown out of the zone, Sanchez has limited hard contact. His .298 opponent slugging percentage on sliders, curves and changeups is sixth-lowest in the AL, behind Chris Sale (.294), Scherzer (.286), C.J. Wilson (.284), Yu Darvish (.243) and Justin Masterson (.181).

Sanchez's winning strategy -- expand the zone with breaking and off-speed stuff -- might not play as well against the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 the ALCS. Collectively, Boston hitters have chased the fourth-lowest percentage of breaking and off-speed pitches in the majors.

Lowest team chase rate on soft pitches

David Ortiz has shown an especially sharp eye against soft pitches, chasing out of the zone only 19 percent of the time this season. Mike Napoli (23.1 percent), Stephen Drew (26 percent), Jonny Gomes (27.8 percent) and Dustin Pedroia (28.4 percent) also resist the urge to go fishing and sliders, curves and changeups.

The Sox do a good deal of damage against soft pitches -- they're slugging .386, fourth-highest in the bigs -- but the real value in their patient approach may be how it puts them in favorable counts and allows them to sit on fastballs. Boston is slugging an MLB-best .484 versus fastballs this season, with Ortiz (.633) and Napoli (.569) leading the way. If Sox hitters lay off Sanchez's soft stuff, he may be forced to challenge Boston with more fastballs. That could lead to some shiny new dents on the Green Monster.

Looking out for number three

When you are looking at the number three batter in most lineups, invariably you are looking at the best hitter on a player's team. 

Number three versus the clean-up batter in the lineup

There certainly have been times when the slugger in the number four slot was the man.

At least, that's what we grew up with fantasizing about.

I mean the number four guy in the line was the clean-up batter. He actually had a name because we pictured the first three guys getting on base and then the number four guy would clean up the bases with a big hit.

Isn't that why Lou Gehrig had so many grand slams?

But the reality is the number three batter has been the hitter to watch out for. Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, and even Mickey Mantle were all primarily number three hitters.

Comparing number three and number four

Take a look at how the top 2013 team's number threes versus number four batters in the lineup have done.

Top 10 number three batters by team

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	HR	BB	K	RBI
Detroit Tigers (DET)	606	.340	.431	.639	1.070	42	82	91	136
Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT)	575	.315	.395	.509	.904	19	62	86	75
Cincinnati Reds (CIN)	598	.314	.430	.504	.934	20	100	115	62
Kansas City Royals (KC)	565	.300	.366	.443	.809	16	52	72	77
San Francisco Giants (SF)	575	.296	.339	.458	.796	17	33	70	82
Colorado Rockies (COL)	584	.295	.363	.560	.923	32	56	148	83
Boston Red Sox (BOS)	605	.295	.370	.408	.778	8	63	66	71
New York Yankees (NYY)	563	.289	.361	.472	.832	23	53	89	83
New York Mets (NYM)	573	.288	.361	.472	.833	19	55	99	63
Cleveland Indians (CLE)	578	.288	.362	.475	.837	16	59	123	83

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/26/2013

2013 Cleanup batters by team

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	HR	BB	K	RBI
Colorado Rockies (COL)	570	.334	.391	.557	.948	26	48	104	106
Texas Rangers (TEX)	559	.328	.379	.544	.923	28	39	59	76
Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)	560	.321	.382	.498	.880	16	47	103	78
St. Louis Cardinals (STL)	568	.320	.382	.482	.864	16	46	98	94
Boston Red Sox (BOS)	592	.313	.380	.574	.954	30	60	99	104
Washington Nationals (WSH)	552	.296	.377	.494	.871	22	62	114	83
Tampa Bay Rays (TB)	559	.295	.367	.497	.864	21	59	117	74
Baltimore Orioles (BAL)	555	.294	.328	.538	.866	32	23	111	107
San Francisco Giants (SF)	561	.278	.351	.451	.802	16	54	81	70
Atlanta Braves (ATL)	563	.278	.350	.460	.810	21	52	115	94

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/26/2013

Look at the variance in the number three slot

Baseball's number three batters are interesting lot.

Baseball's #3 Batters - min. 300 PA

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	K%	BB%	HR	BB	RBI	Swng%	Chas%	P/PA
Miguel Cabrera (DET)	550	.358	.449	.684	14.5%	13.6%	42	75	128	50.4%	28.8%	3.69
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)	537	.318	.399	.509	14.7%	11.2%	17	60	71	46.2%	22.3%	3.77
Joey Votto (CIN)	585	.314	.432	.507	19.1%	17.1%	20	100	61	38.9%	16.7%	4.13
Robinson Cano (NYY)	355	.314	.389	.495	13.5%	11.0%	13	39	52	46.2%	28.7%	3.78
David Wright (NYM)	456	.308	.393	.514	16.2%	11.4%	16	52	53	45.1%	20.9%	3.78
Carlos Gonzalez (COL)	417	.299	.367	.591	26.9%	9.6%	25	40	67	48.2%	32.9%	3.89
Dustin Pedroia (BOS)	593	.299	.374	.415	11.0%	10.6%	8	63	71	42.4%	24.4%	4.12
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)	501	.292	.394	.542	19.8%	14.2%	28	71	88	40.5%	20.4%	4.17
Jason Kipnis (CLE)	303	.283	.372	.445	21.1%	12.9%	7	39	44	39.1%	17.8%	4.31
Alex Rios (CWS)	460	.279	.329	.425	16.5%	6.7%	12	31	55	43.8%	24.7%	3.73
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD)	422	.277	.322	.446	14.7%	6.6%	15	28	60	51.5%	33.6%	3.66
Jason Castro (HOU)	323	.271	.341	.455	26.6%	9.3%	10	30	32	45.6%	27.4%	4.03
Nick Markakis (BAL)	383	.263	.326	.370	8.6%	8.4%	8	32	30	42.1%	24.5%	3.74
Matt Holliday (STL)	400	.263	.343	.455	15.3%	9.8%	15	39	55	50.9%	27.7%	3.70
Albert Pujols (LAA)	443	.258	.330	.437	12.4%	9.0%	17	40	64	45.8%	29.8%	3.79
Justin Upton (ATL)	396	.255	.347	.455	25.3%	11.9%	16	47	46	44.8%	21.6%	4.07
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)	372	.251	.363	.470	26.3%	14.5%	16	54	40	41.4%	26.7%	4.18
Chase Headley (SD)	371	.225	.329	.356	25.1%	11.3%	7	42	30	44.9%	24.4%	3.94
Anthony Rizzo (CHC)	438	.220	.313	.420	19.6%	11.2%	16	49	56	44.5%	26.5%	3.92

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/26/2013

When you look at Miguel Cabrera, you see not the just best number three in baseball, you are looking at the best hitter in the game, on his way to historical greatness.

Andrew McCutchen potentially is on his way to being the NL MVP.

Joey Votto is a great player, but he is the reason why this chart includes walks, swing percentage, and chase percentage. There are many folks out there who get frustrated with Joey's selectivity and when you compare him to his peers, you can see why.

Robinson Cano, is the present and immediate future for the Yankees, if they can retain him. These numbers show you why Jay Z is feeling good about his client.

There is a reason why David Wright is called Captain America, and it's not just because of his good looks. He has good numbers in the three slot.

Carlos Gonzalez is a lifetime .300 hitter.

Dustin Pedroia is the anomaly on this list. The again, when you look at baseball's great players, Pedey is an anomaly in almost every respect.

Paul Goldschmidt is another NL MVP candidate as is Adrian Gonzalez.

Then you have the rest of Gilligan's Island in this select group.

The moral of the story

The moral of this story is very simple:

"If you are a pitcher, be less involved about thinking about number one...you're better off when you focus on number three."

Batters: First Pitch of an At Bat

Entering play on Thursday, there had been 73,352 plate appearances and 282,213 pitches seen.

That averages 3.847 pitches per plate appearance.

Some batters see nine or 10 pitches in a plate appearances, some see only two. But the one thing we know, is that every time someone steps up to the plate, the batter sees at least one pitch.

That makes the first pitch of an at bat a pretty interesting variable. Not always statistically significant, but certainly interesting and really kind of fun.

Who swings?

Top 20 batters who swing at the first pitch

	P	Swng#
Carlos Gomez (MIL)	463	240
Miguel Cabrera (DET)	528	227
Freddie Freeman (ATL)	484	223
Josh Hamilton (LAA)	505	212
Adam Jones (BAL)	542	205
Ian Desmond (WSH)	510	198
Pablo Sandoval (SF)	448	195
Alexei Ramirez (CWS)	534	193
Chris Davis (BAL)	521	189
Jay Bruce (CIN)	542	186
Yadier Molina (STL)	413	185
Justin Morneau (MIN)	509	185
Mark Trumbo (LAA)	534	181
Hunter Pence (SF)	529	181
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)	525	181
Robinson Cano (NYY)	540	178
Anthony Rizzo (CHC)	532	178
Jose Altuve (HOU)	514	177
Marlon Byrd (NYM)	443	174
Matt Holliday (STL)	460	173

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/21/2013

Who gets hits?

Top 20 batters who get hits on the first pitch

	H	2B	3B	HR
Miguel Cabrera (DET)	39	3	0	13
Robinson Cano (NYY)	36	5	0	7
Freddie Freeman (ATL)	36	8	1	4
Carlos Gomez (MIL)	34	8	2	6
Adam Jones (BAL)	32	6	1	8
Anthony Rizzo (CHC)	31	9	1	7
Kendrys Morales (SEA)	30	6	0	6
Yasiel Puig (LAD)	29	5	1	5
Yadier Molina (STL)	29	9	0	2
Joey Votto (CIN)	29	5	1	5
Alexei Ramirez (CWS)	28	7	0	0
David Wright (NYM)	27	2	1	4
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)	27	9	1	1
Alcides Escobar (KC)	27	6	0	2
A. J. Pierzynski (TEX)	27	4	0	5
Yunel Escobar (TB)	26	5	0	3
Mark Trumbo (LAA)	26	2	0	8
Ian Desmond (WSH)	26	5	0	1
Hunter Pence (SF)	26	4	1	2
Gerardo Parra (ARI)	26	5	0	2

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/21/2013

Who hits homers?

Who hits homers on the first pitch?

	AB	HR
Miguel Cabrera (DET)	80	13
Chris Davis (BAL)	54	10
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)	56	9
Pedro Alvarez (PIT)	48	8
Mark Trumbo (LAA)	67	8
Evan Longoria (TB)	44	8
Adam Jones (BAL)	79	8
Robinson Cano (NYY)	87	7
Anthony Rizzo (CHC)	79	7
Troy Tulowitzki (COL)	46	6
Kendrys Morales (SEA)	61	6
Josh Hamilton (LAA)	72	6
Jose Bautista (TOR)	37	6
Hanley Ramirez (LAD)	40	6
Chris Carter (HOU)	28	6
Carlos Gomez (MIL)	87	6
Bryce Harper (WSH)	49	6

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/21/2013

Who misses?

Who swings and misses first pitches?

	Swng#	Miss#	Miss%
Carlos Gomez (MIL)	240	65	27.1%
Josh Hamilton (LAA)	212	63	29.7%
Jay Bruce (CIN)	186	62	33.3%
Mark Trumbo (LAA)	181	61	33.7%
Ian Desmond (WSH)	198	61	30.8%
Freddie Freeman (ATL)	223	61	27.4%
Chris Davis (BAL)	189	61	32.3%
Pedro Alvarez (PIT)	156	59	37.8%
Adam Jones (BAL)	205	56	27.3%
Marlon Byrd (NYM)	174	55	31.6%
Dan Uggla (ATL)	154	54	35.1%
Miguel Cabrera (DET)	227	53	23.3%
Todd Frazier (CIN)	165	50	30.3%
Justin Upton (ATL)	149	50	33.6%
John Buck (NYM)	167	50	29.9%

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/21/2013

Who takes strikes?

Who takes called strikes on first pitches?

	P	Strk#	ClStk#	ClStk%
Dustin Pedroia (BOS)	577	335	278	53.5%
Matt Carpenter (STL)	549	334	266	55.3%
J. J. Hardy (BAL)	496	301	250	56.2%
Martin Prado (ARI)	521	305	248	53.4%
Alex Rios (TEX)	508	298	228	52.1%
Starling Marte (PIT)	536	363	225	56.5%
Mike Trout (LAA)	560	297	224	46.0%
Marco Scutaro (SF)	472	277	223	53.3%
Alejandro De Aza (CWS)	539	327	221	51.0%
Brian Dozier (MIN)	464	268	217	52.5%
Jose Bautista (TOR)	528	311	216	49.9%
Nick Markakis (BAL)	556	315	210	46.6%
Ian Kinsler (TEX)	447	253	209	51.9%
Jason Kipnis (CLE)	512	273	208	46.5%
Ryan Zimmerman (WSH)	471	273	203	50.6%
Carlos Santana (CLE)	490	283	203	49.5%
Nate McLouth (BAL)	470	296	202	53.7%
Alex Gordon (KC)	532	306	201	47.1%
Starlin Castro (CHC)	538	312	200	46.9%
Allen Craig (STL)	509	307	200	49.8%

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/21/2013

Who Takes?

Who takes first pitches?

	P	Strk#	Zone#	Ball#
Dustin Pedroia (BOS)	520	278	293	242
Mike Trout (LAA)	487	224	240	263
Matt Carpenter (STL)	481	266	244	215
Joe Mauer (MIN)	469	232	211	237
Martin Prado (ARI)	464	248	260	216
Nick Markakis (BAL)	451	210	197	241
Jason Kipnis (CLE)	447	208	194	239
J. J. Hardy (BAL)	445	250	269	195
Alex Rios (TEX)	438	228	232	210
Jose Bautista (TOR)	433	216	212	217
Alejandro De Aza (CWS)	433	221	204	212
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)	430	193	193	237
Elvis Andrus (TEX)	430	198	219	232
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)	428	188	194	240
Evan Longoria (TB)	427	190	213	237
Alex Gordon (KC)	427	201	183	226
Starlin Castro (CHC)	426	200	216	226
Brett Gardner (NYY)	424	198	186	226
Kyle Seager (SEA)	421	196	174	225
Billy Butler (KC)	421	191	199	230

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 8/21/2013

I told you it was fun

Spend a little time mulling this over and leave some comments. I look forward to hearing from you.