A Sign of Baseball without Steroids

Fatigue is setting in.

You can see it in the bats that are slower crossing the plate.

You can see it in the fly balls that are dying on the warning track.

You can see it, with the exception of the Red Sox last night at Fenway against the Tigers, as fewer balls fly out of the park.

It's the after the break need of a break for many sluggers.

It's the absence of steroids in baseball 

It was not like that during the steroid era

Take a look at the home run totals in MLB after the break for the last 20 seasons.

Rk	Year	G	HR
1	2004	2252	2625
2	1999	2246	2540
3	2001	2252	2475
4	2006	2216	2444
5	1998	2268	2433
6	2002	2250	2410
7	2000	2268	2381
8	2007	2236	2368
9	2012	2294	2342
10	2009	2222	2335
11	2005	2236	2332
12	1997	2134	2257
13	1996	2104	2243
14	2003	2060	2162
15	2011	2124	2124
16	1995	2126	2117
17	2010	2212	2113
18	2008	2002	2075
19	2013	1342	1241
20	1994	766	775

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/5/2013.

Leading Home Runs Hitters Before the Break

Here are the leading home runs hitters before the break with their strikeouts and their well-hit balls

2013 Leading HR hitters before the break

	G	PA	AB	HR	HR%	WH#	K	K%
Chris Davis (BAL)	95	393	343	37	10.8%	110	110	28.0%
Miguel Cabrera (DET)	93	428	362	30	8.3%	141	64	15.0%
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)	91	399	348	25	7.2%	94	45	11.3%
Carlos Gonzalez (COL)	91	395	354	25	7.1%	76	105	26.6%
Raul Ibanez (SEA)	73	296	277	24	8.7%	74	70	23.6%
Pedro Alvarez (PIT)	85	334	304	24	7.9%	77	109	32.6%
Adam Dunn (CWS)	87	360	310	24	7.7%	79	108	30.0%
Domonic Brown (PHI)	95	384	355	23	6.5%	70	72	18.8%
Nelson Cruz (TEX)	92	386	350	22	6.3%	97	94	24.4%
Robinson Cano (NYY)	95	409	354	21	5.9%	100	52	12.7%
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)	94	406	352	21	6.0%	105	82	20.2%
Mark Trumbo (LAA)	93	398	359	21	5.8%	81	98	24.6%
Adrian Beltre (TEX)	93	399	374	21	5.6%	108	42	10.5%
Jose Bautista (TOR)	87	390	335	20	6.0%	86	69	17.7%
Jay Bruce (CIN)	94	412	379	19	5.0%	100	112	27.2%
David Ortiz (BOS)	77	331	287	19	6.6%	109	43	13.0%
Carlos Beltran (STL)	84	350	330	19	5.8%	77	60	17.1%
Adam Jones (BAL)	96	413	395	19	4.8%	94	76	18.4%

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 9/5/2013

Leading Home Run Hitters After the Break

2013 Home Run Hitters After the Break

	G	PA	AB	HR	HR%	WH#	K	K%
Miguel Cabrera (DET)	35	142	125	13	10.4%	48	21	14.8%
Alfonso Soriano (NYY)	42	178	163	13	8.0%	26	47	26.4%
Jayson Werth (WSH)	43	180	152	11	7.2%	42	28	15.6%
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)	46	200	165	11	6.7%	48	13	6.5%
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)	42	199	156	10	6.4%	44	41	20.6%
Justin Morneau (PIT)	45	194	178	10	5.6%	39	38	19.6%
Freddie Freeman (ATL)	44	186	162	10	6.2%	44	32	17.2%
Evan Longoria (TB)	42	185	167	10	6.0%	47	49	26.5%
Darin Ruf (PHI)	43	173	152	10	6.6%	36	52	30.1%
Chris Davis (BAL)	42	183	154	10	6.5%	33	58	31.7%
Brandon Moss (OAK)	40	138	123	10	8.1%	31	28	20.3%
Adam Jones (BAL)	42	181	171	10	5.8%	47	33	18.2%
Will Venable (SD)	42	172	162	9	5.6%	31	38	22.1%
Torii Hunter (DET)	42	188	175	9	5.1%	34	30	16.0%
Nate Schierholtz (CHC)	39	151	141	9	6.4%	20	41	27.2%
Mitch Moreland (TEX)	44	141	122	9	7.4%	33	28	19.9%
Coco Crisp (OAK)	38	163	150	9	6.0%	25	21	12.9%
Chris Carter (HOU)	40	168	144	9	6.3%	33	61	36.3%
Brian Dozier (MIN)	43	203	184	9	4.9%	29	40	19.7%
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)	46	199	169	9	5.3%	56	33	16.6%

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 9/5/2013

Understand that the folks on this list are the HR leaders since the break.

So if you see a player on top, from the first half leaders, not on the bottom, that means that he hasn't hit at least nine homers since mid-July.

But it's more than that.

It's strikeout rates that have risen and the number of well hit balls that find grass or gloves instead of fans hands.

And that, my friends, is what baseball looks like without steroids.

CC Sabathia's HR Woes

Yankees starter CC Sabathia has coughed up a career-high 24 home runs during the 2013 season. That's tied with R.A. Dickey and Joe Blanton for second-most among all starting pitchers. While the 33-year-old has bested fellow $20 million-plus-a-year veterans Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira by at least staying on the field, Sabathia also has the eighth-worst adjusted ERA (85 ERA+) among qualified American League starters.

The 2007 AL Cy Young Award winner and six-time All-Star has usually been one of the game's best at preventing big flys, allowing just 0.8 home runs nine innings from his rookie year in 2001 through 2012. Why has Sabathia (1.4 HR/9 in 2013) seemingly morphed into a left-handed Phil Hughes? Here's a closer look at how hitters are taking CC deep.

• Sabathia's no-longer-fast fastball is the main culprit, as hitters have homered 15 times against the pitch in 2013. Only A.J. Griffin (20) has given up more home runs with the fastball. As Sabathia's velocity diminishes, hitters are increasingly ripping his fastball down the lines and into the seats. He has lost about three ticks since 2011, and opponents are now pulling well over 40 percent of his fastballs:

Sabathia's slowing fastball

Ten of the 15 fastball home runs Sabathia has given up this year have been pulled. Back in 2011, CC trailed just David Price and Derek Holland in average fastball velocity among lefty starters. This year, he places a middling 21st out of 44 lefty starters who have thrown at least 500 fastballs.

• Sabathia is leaving more pitches over the middle of the strike zone this season (27%) than in 2012 (24%), and he's paying for it. Eleven of the 24 homers he has allowed have caught the fat part of the plate, already surpassing his 2012 total (eight).
• He's also generating fewer ground balls in 2013 (46% of balls put in play) than in 2012 (49%). Opponents aren't just putting the ball in the air more frequently against Sabathia, though -- they're driving those fly balls farther. Fly balls hit off CC are traveling an average of 272 feet this year, up from 259 feet last season and the 266 foot average for starting pitchers.
• Sabathia is getting scorched more often when the hitter's back is against the wall, allowing more two-strike home runs in 2013 (eight) than in 2011 and 2012 combined (six). CC's newfound aggression with two strikes may be part of the problem -- he's throwing pitches over the plate 48% of the time in two-strike counts this year, compared to 38% in 2012. Six of the eight homers he has given up in two-strike counts have come on in-zone pitches.

Raul Ibanez Destined for Old Dude HR History

When the Seattle Mariners originally drafted Raul Ibanez, Bill Clinton was the sax-playing governor of Arkansas, Sir-Mix-a-Lot's "Baby Got Back" topped the charts and cell phones were bigger than Jose Altuve. Much has changed since 1992, but Ibanez is still slugging. The 41-year-old has already clubbed 24 home runs this season, a mark bested by only Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Gonzalez among MLB hitters.

Ibanez's power display is impressive for a batter at any age, but it's nearly unprecedented for a guy who's closer to AARP eligibility than the beginning of his career. Even if he cools off in the second half, Ibanez looks primed to break the single-season home run record for a player in his forties:

Highest single-season HR totals for 40+ year-old hitters

 Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Ibanez's plate approach at this advanced stage of his career can be summed up as, "swing hard in case you hit it." Here's a closer look at how Ibanez is on pace for forty-plus homers in his forties.

He's whiffing often...

Ibanez is coming up empty about 26% that he swings, up from 23% last season and well north of the 21% big league average. That, in turn, has led to a career-high 24.3% punch out rate.

But when he connects...

He's ripping the ball down the right field line. Ibanez has pulled about 48% of pitches put in play, compared to 43% in 2012 and the 33% average for left-handed hitters. No one has been more pull-happy than Ibanez, who trails just Domonic Brown among lefties in pull-side homers (18) and ranks seventh in slugging percentage (1.042) on balls hit to right field.

Ibanez's HR in 2013

He can still handle the heat, too

While he might lose a foot race to manager and fellow forty-something Eric Wedge, Ibanez has plenty of bat speed left. He has 15 home runs against "hard" pitches, meaning fastballs, cutters and splitters. Ibanez's fresh-faced, flame-throwing victims include Justin Wilson (96 MPH), Garrett Richards and Jarrod Parker (95 MPH).