Two Games of LCS Pitching

The pitching in these League Championship Series has been remarkable and worth taking a deeper look.

2013 LCS pitching through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. St. Louis Cardinals	22.0	85	4.09	76	14	3	0	7	24	.184	.269	.026	0.82	0.955
2. Los Angeles Dodgers	20.1	74	3.89	67	9	3	0	6	18	.134	.180	.000	1.33	0.738
3. Detroit Tigers	17.0	69	4.43	59	8	3	1	9	32	.136	.269	.017	2.65	1.000
4. Boston Red Sox	18.0	78	3.65	70	17	8	2	5	13	.243	.273	.072	3.00	1.222

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Two broad strokes:

• The Dodgers are one unlucky team, but the Cardinals are also pitching brilliantly.
• The most significant number that might explain why Boston is tied in their LCS can be seen as they continue to do what they do best: work the pitcher. Their 4.43 pitches per plate appearance is significantly greater than any of the other three teams.

Let's go deeper by looking at the starting pitching

Clearly the Cardinals and Dodgers starters have been outstanding, but the Tigers starters have been even better. As we progress in this postseason, it would be fair to say that the Red Sox starters are the weakest of the four teams and the team's greatest weakness.

2013 LCS Starting pitching through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. Detroit Tigers	13.0	50	4.48	41	2	1	0	8	25	.049	.125	.000	0.69	0.769
2. Los Angeles Dodgers	14.0	48	3.67	45	6	3	0	2	15	.133	.194	.000	1.29	0.571
3. St. Louis Cardinals	12.1	53	3.91	49	11	2	0	3	13	.224	.306	.041	1.42	1.105
4. Boston Red Sox	12.0	53	3.60	49	14	6	2	1	10	.286	.324	.083	4.50	1.250

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2013 LCS Starters through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. Anibal Sanchez (DET)	6.0	25	4.64	19	0	0	0	6	12	.000	.000	.000	0.00	1.000
2. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)	6.0	20	3.60	18	2	2	0	1	5	.111	.143	.000	0.00	0.500
3. Michael Wacha (STL)	6.1	26	4.31	25	5	1	0	1	8	.200	.294	.080	0.00	0.900
4. Max Scherzer (DET)	7.0	25	4.32	22	2	1	0	2	13	.091	.222	.000	1.29	0.571
5. Jon Lester (BOS)	6.0	27	4.04	24	6	1	0	1	4	.250	.300	.125	1.42	1.105
6. Zack Greinke (LAD)	8.0	28	3.71	27	4	1	0	1	10	.148	.235	.000	2.25	0.625
7. Joe Kelly (STL)	6.0	27	3.52	24	6	1	0	2	5	.250	.316	.000	3.00	1.333
8. Clay Buchholz (BOS)	5.1	26	3.15	25	8	5	2	0	6	.320	.353	.042	7.94	1.412

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Let's go even deeper by looking at the bullpens

Tigers fans instead of bemoaning the fact that you are leaving Boston tied 1-1, you need to feel really happy you got out of Dodge with a win. The Red Sox have lit up the Detroit bullpen, barely escaping with a win in Game 1 and you saw what happened in Game 2.

2013 LCS Bullpen pitching through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. Boston Red Sox	6.0	25	3.76	21	3	2	0	4	3	.143	.167	.048	0.00	1.167
2. St. Louis Cardinals	9.1	32	4.41	27	3	1	0	4	11	.111	.188	.000	0.00	0.750
3. Los Angeles Dodgers	6.0	26	4.31	22	3	0	0	4	3	.136	.158	.000	1.42	1.105
4. Detroit Tigers	4.0	19	4.32	18	6	2	1	1	7	.333	.500	.056	9.00	1.750

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It's not just one Tigers reliever, it's all of them

You have to wonder if Jim Leyland is going to have the phone removed from the dugout

2013 LCS Tigers relief pitching through two games

	IP	PA	P/PA	AB	H	XBH	HR	BB	K	AVG	BABIP	WHAV	ERA	WHIP
1. Al Alburquerque	1.1	5	4.00	5	1	0	0	0	3	.200	.500	.000	6.75	0.750
2. Joaquin Benoit	1.1	6	5.00	6	2	1	1	0	2	.333	.333	.000	6.75	1.500
3. Jose Veras	1.0	4	2.50	4	1	1	0	0	2	.250	.500	.000	9.00	1.000
4. Drew Smyly	0.1	2	6.50	1	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.000	.000	27.00	3.000
5. Rick Porcello	0.0	2	4.50	2	2	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	.500	-	-

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Wainwright's Curveball Key to Bucs-Cards Game 5

The Pirates and Cardinals face off Wednesday night for the 24th and final time during the 2013 season, with a trip to the National League Championship Series on the line. The Dodgers' opponent in the fight for NL supremacy may be decided by whether the Bucs can accomplish something they failed to do in NLDS Game 1: Solve Adam Wainwright's curveball. Pittsburgh has struggled all year along against the curve, though a pair of trade pickups offer hope as the club tries to win its first postseason matchup since Willie Stargell and Dave Parker raked for the 1979 World Series champs.

Pirates batters are slugging a collective .268 against curveballs this season, which is 55 points below the MLB average (.323) and bests only the historically punchless Miami Marlins among all teams. In particular, Pedro Alvarez (.123 slugging percentage versus curveballs), Starling Marte (.237) and Russell Martin (.267) are flailing when pitchers snap off a curve.

For Alvarez, merely making contact against a curve is a coin flip. He's swinging and missing 49.1 percent of the time versus curveballs in 2013, the second-highest clip among qualified hitters (Dan Uggla whiffed 49.4 percent). Pitchers are well aware of his weakness, feeding him the seventh-highest rate of curveballs seen (12.6 percent) among MLB hitters. Unless pitchers hang a curve over the middle of the plate, Pedro's whiffing:

Alvarez's contact rate by pitch location versus curveballs, 2013

Marte, meanwhile, can't resist the urge to hack at curveballs thrown in the dirt. He's chasing curves at the fifth-highest rate (40.2 percent) in the National League. Like Alvarez, Marte's trouble with the curve is well-known: He has seen curveballs 11.8 percent of the time this season, the NL's eighth-highest rate. Marte expands his strike zone to go after low-and-away breakers:

Marte's swing rate by pitch location versus curveballs, 2013

Martin doesn't see as many curves as Alvarez or Marte (9.1 percent of total pitches), and he doesn't share their contact or plate discipline woes against the pitch. It's just that nothing happens when he puts curveballs in play. Martin is hitting a ground ball 62.5 percent of the time versus curves, the ninth-highest rate in the NL. Considering that Martin is a catcher with over 1,000 big leagues games to his name and his batting average on grounders (.228) is way below the big league average (.254), that's not a happy development.

Not all Bucs are scuffling against curveballs, however. Andrew McCutchen (.371 slugging percentage versus curves) and Neil Walker (.378) hold their own, while midseason trade acquisitions Marlon Byrd (.452) and Justin Morneau (.507) crush the pitch.

Wainwright, who throws the fourth-highest percentage of curveballs (27.3 percent) among starting pitchers and has limited hitters to a .230 slugging percentage (11th-best), schooled the Pirates with his signature offering in Game 1. He racked up six swinging strikeouts with his curveball, getting Alvarez, Byrd (twice), Marte, Martin and Morneau to chase out of the strike zone. Bucs batters went 0-for-11 against Wainwright's curve and didn't hit a single one out of the infield. If the Pirates are going to play for the pennant, that has to change in their Game 5 rematch.

The Black & Gold in a Sea of Red

The Cardinals and Pirates are meeting for the first time ever in a postseason game and everybody is talking about the momentum of the Pirates and desire for revenge for the postseason-returning Cardinals.

Let me get one key stat out of the way

We know as long as the Cardinals can get runners on base, they are going to be very dangerous.

• The NL batting average with runners on was .257 - The Pirates hit .248, the Cardinals hit .313.
  
• The NL batting average w/RISP was .251 - The Pirates hit .229 (only the Cubs were worse), the Cardinals hit .330 (all of MLB was worse).

So let's put that discussion aside and talk about who has the home field advantage.

The Black & Gold is the New Black

It was stunning to see and hear the Pirates fans in their dismantling of the Reds in the Wild Card play-in, but that surprise factor is gone and the Redbirds are going to be ready and the Cardinals fans are going to be inspired.

Only the Atlanta Braves (56-25) were more effective at home then the Cards in the NL this season.

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	Home	Road
1	STL	97	65	.599	---	54-27	43-38
2	PIT	94	68	.580	3.0	50-31	44-37

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 10/2/2013.

Note that despite the fact that the Pirates took the season series, 10-9, the Cardinals were 6-3 at home versus the Bucs. So, even though the Pirates were 7-3 against Cards in Pittsburgh's House of Thunder, three-of-five games are being played in St. Louis, Louie.

In Game 1 and if there is a Game 5, the match-up will be Adam Wainwright against A.J. Burnett.

The difference in the numbers is significant:

2013 NLDS Cards vs Pirates Games 1 & 5 Match-up

	G	IP	IP/G	ERA	WHIP	AVG	SLUG	OBP	HR	K	BB	K/BB	Grnd%
Adam Wainwright at Home	17	121.0	7.12	2.53	0.942	.217	.314	.254	7	114	20	5.70	50.2%
A. J. Burnett - Away	16	96.0	6.00	4.22	1.365	.257	.388	.329	6	96	35	2.74	57.3%

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/2/2013

  Burnett is clearly not as effective on the road as he is on his home turf, but Wainwright is very effective in the shadow of the Arch and that can't be minimized.

Pirates batters in St. Louis

Russell Martin did great against the Reds and all season long he hit the Cards well on their home field. The Cards will happily live with more of the same from Andrew McCutchen and be thrilled with Pedro Alvarez if he continues his flailing against the Redbirds in their home colors. Justin Morneau was 0-for-10 in St. Louis.

2013 Pirates @ St. Louis (min. 10 PA)

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	K	BB
Jose Tabata (PIT)	7	25	.391	.440	.696	1.136	23	9	4	0	1	4	1
Russell Martin (PIT)	7	31	.346	.452	.885	1.336	26	9	2	0	4	7	5
Clint Barmes (PIT)	7	23	.316	.409	.474	.883	19	6	0	0	1	5	3
Garrett Jones (PIT)	8	29	.308	.379	.654	1.033	26	8	3	0	2	6	3
Andrew McCutchen (PIT)	8	35	.276	.400	.414	.814	29	8	1	0	1	7	6
Starling Marte (PIT)	6	33	.269	.387	.423	.810	26	7	2	1	0	8	2
Tony Sanchez (PIT)	5	10	.250	.400	.250	.650	8	2	0	0	0	3	1
Pedro Alvarez (PIT)	9	41	.237	.268	.342	.610	38	9	1	0	1	13	2
Jordy Mercer (PIT)	5	14	.214	.214	.500	.714	14	3	1	0	1	4	0
Andrew Lambo (PIT)	5	11	.200	.273	.400	.673	10	2	2	0	0	3	1
Neil Walker (PIT)	7	32	.172	.219	.241	.460	29	5	2	0	0	7	2
Marlon Byrd (PIT)	4	14	.231	.286	.538	.824	13	3	1	0	1	3	1
Gaby Sanchez (PIT)	8	16	.083	.188	.083	.271	12	1	0	0	0	2	0
Justin Morneau (PIT)	3	11	.000	.091	.000	.091	10	0	0	0	0	4	1

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/3/2013

Cardinals batters in St. Louis versus the Pirates

Jon Jay LURVES hitting against the Bucs at home. Matt Carpenter is close to a .400 batter, and and Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran both are over .300 hitters. Carpenter had nine extra base hits against the Bucs at home and Beltran slugged three doubles and two homers. It doesn't appear as if the Cards will miss Allen Craig here.

2013 Pirates @ St. Louis (min. 10 PA)

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	K	BB
Jon Jay (STL)	9	34	.517	.576	.690	1.265	29	15	5	0	0	3	2
Matt Carpenter (STL)	9	44	.395	.477	.711	1.188	38	15	5	2	1	5	5
Matt Holliday (STL)	9	40	.333	.450	.424	.874	33	11	3	0	0	6	7
Carlos Beltran (STL)	9	37	.323	.405	.613	1.018	31	10	3	0	2	4	5
Pete Kozma (STL)	9	32	.250	.344	.286	.629	28	7	1	0	0	6	4
Allen Craig (STL)	6	29	.240	.345	.280	.625	25	6	1	0	0	4	3
Daniel Descalso (STL)	5	17	.214	.353	.286	.639	14	3	1	0	0	1	3
Shane Robinson (STL)	5	11	.200	.273	.300	.573	10	2	1	0	0	2	1
Matt Adams (STL)	5	16	.188	.188	.188	.375	16	3	0	0	0	3	0
Yadier Molina (STL)	7	28	.185	.214	.407	.622	27	5	3	0	1	4	1
David Freese (STL)	8	29	.160	.241	.320	.561	25	4	1	0	1	5	3

Created by BaseballAnalytics.org on 10/3/2013

It looks like home field advantage for the Cards in this series

The Cardinals are not the Reds, they are a confident team (even with all their rookies) that won't be as surprised or rattled by the fabulous Pirates fans.

This season, the Cardinals have played well against everyone, including the Pirates, at home and they have the great Wainwright and they have him, perhaps twice, at home.

That's why I'm taking the red over the black and gold.